Two words sum up the national and battleground state polls released ahead of Labor Day weekend, less than 10 weeks before Election Day: changed and closed.
It was changed because most polls — conducted after President Joe Biden dropped out of the 2024 race, after the Democratic convention and after independent Robert F. Kennedy endorsed former President Donald Trump — show Vice President Kamala Harris leading by narrow margins nationally and regionally. major battlegrounds.
That compares to a poll that showed Trump more narrowly edged before Biden’s departure.
And close, as nearly all of Harris’ leads are within the polls’ margins of error. Given the polling errors of 2016 and especially 2020, a candidate with a 1, 2 or 3 point advantage in the polls is not guaranteed victory – far from it.
Nationally, nearly every recent poll shows Harris outperforming Trump by a few points. The latest Wall Street Journal survey Harris has the support of 48% of registered voters, while Trump’s 47% is within the margin of error. The An earlier Wall Street Journal pollThe poll, conducted immediately after Biden’s departure, put Trump ahead by 2 points, 49% to 47% — still within the margin of error.
In addition, a National Quinnipiac University Survey Harris leads among likely voters by 1 point, 49% to 48%. This is Quinnipiac’s first poll to measure likely voters, so there’s no past apples-to-apples comparison. But previous Quinnipiac polls of registered voters had Trump narrowly ahead of Biden in June and 2 points ahead of Harris in July.
And a USA Today/Suffolk poll Looking at the multi-candidate field, Harris leads Trump by 5 points among likely voters — again within the margin of error.
And a number in the battle provinces Bloomberg News/Morning Consult polls Harris and Trump tied in Arizona and North Carolina; Harris leads Georgia, Michigan, Nevada and Pennsylvania in margin of error; and Harris is ahead beyond the margin of error in Wisconsin.
But the voting landscape on the battlefield is more diverse: An EPIC-MRA Survey of Michigan It shows Trump leading Harris by 1 point in this battleground, 47% to 46% among likely voters. Again, that’s a change from that poll in June, when Trump had a 4-point lead over Biden.
Here are other key takeaways and observations from the latest poll:
The Sun Belt is more than a game for Harris
This could be the most significant electoral change since Biden’s departure. When Biden was in the race, the states of Arizona, Georgia, Nevada and North Carolina seemed out of reach for the president.
But they are more than just contacting Harris at the top of the ticket.
Prior to the June 27 Biden-Trump debate, Biden trailed Trump by slim margins in the swing states of the Great Lakes and wider gaps in the Sun Belt. Not only is Harris doing better everywhere, but the margins in many of those states have narrowed with him leading the ticket.
Is this the peak of Harris?
The timing of these inquiries is also important. They come nearly six weeks after Biden dropped out of the 2024 race, after the Democratic convention and a political honeymoon for Harris.
It coincided with momentum It increased democratic enthusiasmthe end? Or will Harris finally return to Earth?
It’s pretty easy to explain why any of these scenarios could be true. The only way to know for sure is to wait and see.
Trump about 47%
Have you noticed a pattern in Trump’s ballot share in these recent polls? He received 47% of the national vote in a Wall Street Journal poll; 47% in the EPIC-MRA Michigan survey; 47% in Georgia and Michigan, according to Bloomberg/Morning Consult polls.
As you know, in the 2020 election, Trump got 47% of the popular vote (he lost), and in 2016, 46% (he won).
The voice of the third party is reduced
The main reason why 46% of Trump won in 2016 and 47% did not win in 2020 measure of the third party’s voice.
In 2016, the vote share of third parties was 6%. But four years later, it was only 2%.
The latest polls – with Kennedy out of the race – show third-party candidates getting a combined 2% of the vote. A national survey by Quinnipiacand get a combined 4% USA Today/Suffolk poll.
By comparison, when Kennedy was in the race, even after his high-altitude fall earlier this summer, the third-party share was much larger.