How one group is trying to weaken Kamala Harris’ standing with Black voters: From the Politics Desk

Welcome to the online version of From the policy deskevening bulletin that brings you the latest reporting and analysis from the campaign trail, the White House and Capitol Hill from the NBC News Politics team.

In today’s edition, national political reporter Ben Kamisar reports on the conservative group’s new campaign aimed at reducing Kamala Harris’ numbers with black voters. Plus, national political reporter Steve Kornacki explains how the Democrats’ path to victory in North Carolina has changed since 2008.

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How one group is trying to undermine Harris’ standing among Black voters

By Ben Kamisar

A conservative nonprofit group is planning to spend $10 million criticizing the White House’s proposal to ban menthol cigarettes, hoping to lose support from Vice President Kamala Harris’ core black voters.

A new ad campaign by Building America’s Future and Americans for Consumer Protection, a Building America’s Future official described to NBC News, will primarily target black voters in Arizona, Georgia, Michigan, North Carolina and Wisconsin.

Digital advertising, text messages and direct mail will try to paint the Biden-Harris administration as out of touch for focusing on the menthol cigarette ban over other issues.

“Instead of solving the issues that matter to you, Kamala Harris and the DC Democrats are after your menthol cigarettes,” he said. new digital advertising he says.

“We, and the Democrats, have bigger problems to deal with,” the ad continued, with headlines about the “border crisis” and the “fentanyl crisis” on the screen.

Although the Biden administration proposed the ban in 2021, he delayed the implementation in April. Black smokers are more likely to use menthol cigarettes, according to government dataand The proposed ban was divided civil rights and health groups.

Republicans see such messaging as a potential way for Harris to shore up his party’s base as he remains in a tight race against former President Donald Trump.

“Vice President Harris’ coronation completely reset this race because he was able to unify the Democrats’ most important constituency — black voters,” Ryan Tyson, head of the Tyson Group, wrote in a memo shared with NBC News: “Building America’s Future,” the group’s latest poll.

“One way Republicans can fight Harris’s rise in the polls is to alienate black people from him,” he said. “Highlighting Harris’ support for a ban on menthol cigarettes could be a niche message that could make it happen.”

The Harris campaign did not comment when asked if it would seek to implement the ban if it won the White House.

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Democrats will have to take a different path than Obama did to win North Carolina

By Steve Kornacki

All year, Democrats have debated the idea of ​​North Carolina being a key battleground state. And now, surveys show that it is one and Republicans they act as they believe.

“I have a 2008 feeling,” Democratic Gov. Roy Cooper He recently told NBC NewsReferring to Barack Obama’s narrow victory in North Carolina that year – the last time Democrats carried the state in a presidential election.

Of course, the state and its political geography have changed in the last 16 years. If they are going to achieve anything like 2008 this year, Democrats will have to take a different path than Obama did.

One way to look at it: Overall, North Carolina has only changed 1.66 percentage points from 2008 (when Obama won by 0.32 points) to 2020 (when Trump won by 1.34 points). But in 76 of the state’s 100 counties, the margin swung more than 5 points in the Republican direction. In 57 of them, the change was at least 10 points in favor of the GOP.

These GOP growth areas are spread across the state. Many of them are smaller and more rural, with the vast majority of the population consisting of white, blue-collar voters. In 2008, Obama was able to run fairly competitively in these states. Overall, he lost them to John McCain by 17 points. By 2020, Joe Biden was 35 points behind. This reflects a national trend of white voters without a college degree moving toward the GOP, and Trump in particular.

Meanwhile, democratic growth has become more concentrated from 2008 to 2020. There are only seven counties in the state where the margin has moved more than 5 points along party lines, all of which are in large cities with larger populations:

Democrats are bolstered in these states by large black populations and an above-average concentration of white voters with college degrees — again mirroring the national trend.

Not only are these states big, they’re growing fast. Democrats beat Trump in North Carolina by 74,483 votes in 2020; they hope four years of growth and further improvement in their margins will more than close the gap. Of course, Republicans have so far been able to offset these Democratic gains with their own growth areas, and they may do so again this year.

The main question is about the Black vote, especially in the smaller rural areas. In total, 17 North Carolina counties currently have at least a 35% black population.

In 2008, Obama benefited from strong black turnout in these states, winning them by a combined 15.5 points. (These states also have significant GOP-friendly blue-collar white populations.) In 2020, Biden carried the same states by just 11.2 points. Whether Harris posts an Obama-like or Biden-like margin in those states could be the deciding question in North Carolina.

That’s all for the Policy Desk for now. If you have feedback – like it or not – email us politicsnewsletter@nbcuni.com

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