If Democrats lose the Senate, their road back to the majority won’t be easy: From the Politics Desk

Welcome to the online version of From the policy deskevening bulletin that brings you the latest reporting and analysis from the campaign trail, the White House and Capitol Hill from the NBC News Politics team.

In today’s edition, senior politics editor Mark Murray examines why Democrats will have a tough road back to the majority if they lose control of the Senate this year. Plus, senior national political reporter Sahil Kapur examines how Kamala Harris is trying to wrest the mantle of fiscal responsibility from the GOP.

Sign up here to receive this newsletter in your inbox every weekday.

If the Democrats lose the Senate, it will not be easy for them to return to the majority

By Mark Murray

Republicans are favored — certainly not guaranteed — to win Control of the US Senate this november.

Currently, Democrats (and independents who caucus with the party) hold 51 seats in the Senate, while Republicans hold 49. So the simple math is this: If Donald Trump loses the presidential election, Republicans need to win two seats to win back the Senate. (the vice president casts tie-breaking votes), West Virginia, Montana, and Ohio are the best options in that order. If Trump wins, they only need to gain one seat.

If Democrats lose control of the Senate in the fall, they face this stark reality: With seats up for grabs in 2026 and 2028, they have no easy way back into the majority.

This is largely due to the geographic realignment in American politics over the past decade, with Democrats winning statewide in blue and (often) battleground states, but Republicans dominating red states.

Gone are the days when Democrats won Senate seats in Arkansas, South Dakota, North Dakota and (soon) West Virginia, meaning their ability to play offense will be limited if they lose control of the chamber.

For example, there is only one Senate Republican representing a blue state in 2026 — Maine’s Susan Collins, who will face re-election. In 2026 and 2028, there are only three Republicans who will go to the polls — North Carolina’s Tom Tillis and Ted Budd, and Wisconsin’s Ron Johnson.

Compare that to six Democratic senators from states running for re-election. 2026 and 2028: Georgia’s Jon Ossoff and Michigan’s Gary Peters in 2026; and Catherine Cortez Masto of Nevada, John Fetterman of Pennsylvania, Mark Kelly of Arizona and Rafael Warnock of Georgia in 2028.

So, on paper, the seats Democrats will have to defend look more difficult than Republicans.

But there’s an important caveat: trying to game Senate maps two and four years later can be problematic. Our politics can have scholarships, scandals, stars, and major changes (as we saw in 2006 and 2008 when Democrats expanded the Senate map because of the Iraq war and the unpopularity of George W. Bush).

Still, these Senate maps, potentially tough for Democrats in 2026 and 2028 — highlight the importance of minimizing Senate losses in November — as they are now.

Losing three or more 2,024 seats would make it more difficult for Democrats to win back the Senate over a decade than losing just one or two seats.

Harris is trying to change the script on financial responsibility

By Sahil Kapoor

Vice President Kamala Harris is seeking to take financial responsibility in the 2024 race — a turf traditionally favored by Republicans.

Harris approves trillions of dollars in new tax revenue to fund it new policy plansand his campaign is attacking former President Donald Trump for not explaining how he will pay for the multi-trillion dollar agenda he campaigned on.

Harris campaign spokesman James Singer called Trump’s agenda an “inflation and deficit bomb” in a statement to NBC News, prompting a campaign response that Trump blamed for the “Biden-Harris inflation tax.”

According to nonpartisan estimates, Harris proposes to spend about $2 trillion and raise tax revenues by $5 trillion over ten years. Trump is calling for about $5 trillion in tax breaks and spending, while raising less than $3 trillion in revenue through tariffs.

“Hands down, VP Harris has more fiscal discipline than President Trump,” said Mark Zandi, chief economist at Moody’s Analytics.

“This is a clear signal that they plan to be fiscally disciplined, regardless of what the policies are,” he said. “And it’s a bit of a cheat. “Historically, being fiscally disciplined and focusing on budget deficits has been a Republican rallying cry.”

A Harris campaign spokesman said the White House supports $5 trillion in new tax revenue. budget released in March, including a raising the corporate tax rate From 21% to 28%, Trump is ending tax cuts for higher earners next year and a number of taxes on wealthier Americans.

Harris’ plans to lower housing, child care and prescription drug prices would cost about $1.7 trillion. according to A research group calling on the Committee for a Responsible Federal Budget to cut the red ink.

Harris is trying to flip the script on fiscal responsibility and build a permission structure for Trump-skeptic moderate Republicans and center-right voters to support his candidacy. He rejected some of the left-wing proposals he endorsed as a 2019 presidential candidate, such as Medicare for All and the Green New Deal.

Marc Goldwein, chief policy director of the Committee for a Responsible Federal Budget, cautioned that the Harris campaign has not earmarked the full $3 trillion for deficit reduction. And he noted that Trump’s extension of tax cuts for lower earners in 2025 will also affect those who increase his income.

“We haven’t seen the full plan yet,” he said.

More Coast →

That’s all for the Policy Desk for now. If you have feedback – like it or not – email us politicsnewsletter@nbcuni.com

If you are a fan, please share with anyone and everyone. They can register here.