The Senate battleground is set after Tuesday’s primaries, with both parties preparing for a close and costly battle for centralized control in several key states.
After GOP Sen. Rick Scott and former Rep. Debbie Mukarsel-Powell, a Democrat advanced to the general elections In red-leaning Florida, key November races on the Senate map are officially set, mostly in Democratic-held territory.
Democrats are optimistic they can hold on to narrow majorities thanks to a new wave of enthusiasm provided by the candidacy of Vice President Kamala Harris and the strength of the brands the incumbent senators have built in their home states. But Republicans still see the broader playing field tilted in their favor, believing that voters’ partisan loyalties will overwhelm Democrats in must-win states that lean toward the GOP.
Republicans need just two seats for a clear majority, or one seat if former President Donald Trump wins the White House, because the vice president carries a tie in the Senate.
Thanks to Democratic Sen. Joe Manchin’s decision not to seek re-election in the heavily conservative state of West Virginia, the GOP can actually count one in its column. In states that Trump easily carried four years ago, the GOP has two primary targets: Sens. John Tester of Montana and Sherrod Brown of Ohio.
“Senate Democrats must make a perfect play to retain their majorities, including ruby-red Montana and Ohio,” National Republican Senatorial Committee Chairman Steve Daines, R-Mont., said in a statement. “We like our chances.”
“The map may be tough, but to stretch the metaphor, our starting pitchers are the best we’ve got in the business,” said Democratic strategist Martha McKenna, a veteran of the Democratic Senatorial Campaign Committee.
“We hit five or six perfect shots,” McKenna added later. “And now we just have to close.”
Partisanship and existence
Sen. Gary Peters, D-Mich., chairman of the Democratic Senatorial Campaign Committee, said in a recent interview that he believes his party can pick up 50 seats, acknowledging that West Virginia is no longer in play. But he added that he was “very optimistic” Democrats could pick up one or two Republican-held seats in Florida and Texas.
To do that, Tester and Brown will likely have to do what few have done in the hyper-polarized Trump era: win their states because their voters support the other party’s presidential candidate. Only Sen. Susan Collins, R-Maine, took it in 2020. In 2016, no Senate candidate did this.
But Democrats believe that if anyone can convince voters to split their tickets, these two senators can do it.
“They’ve always had to run above the Democratic base,” Peters said. “They have done it in the past. I am sure that they will do it again in the future.”
While partisan polarization is a powerful force, so is incumbency. No senator lost re-election in the 2022 midterm elections. He lost five in 2020 and only two in 2016.
But Democrats face a tough road to defend not only those two red states, but also several perennial battlegrounds, including Pennsylvania, Nevada, Arizona, Wisconsin and Michigan. And they plan to make the fight personal.
“We have outstanding Democratic incumbents and candidates running against flawed Republican candidates,” Peters said, adding that voters are “choosing between two individuals, and they’re going to weigh the pros and cons of those individuals. When they do that, we’re sure they’ll have a Democratic Senate.” they will vote for their candidate”.
The Democratic Party’s Senatorial Election Commission has started its activities the din of advertisements this month, focusing on the personal backgrounds of GOP candidates, examining their business dealings and raising questions about their ties to the states they’re running for.
But Republicans believe they have strong recruiting, pointing to candidates with military backgrounds such as Montana’s Tim Sheehy and Pennsylvania’s Dave McCormick. These two Republicans, along with the other candidates, are personally wealthy and can finance their campaigns as they face a tide of Democratic money.
National and local emphasis
As Democrats sought to localize and personalize the campaign, the GOP sought to nationalize it.
The National Republican Senatorial Committee has teamed up with GOP candidates on a series of ads tying Democrats to Harris and President Joe Biden. (Known as Spots hybrid ads(This should partly focus on national issues.)
Harris’ new status as a presidential candidate has given the Democratic Senate candidates a much-needed boost, bringing new volunteers and campaign donations.
Public polls showed Democratic Senate candidates outperforming Biden, who decided to drop out of the race. And some still ahead of Harristheir paths are clearer without such a wide gap at the top of the ticket.
“I think we had great alignments before the transition, but now it’s like everybody’s shot Red Bull,” said Democratic strategist McKenna.
Peters also said that Harris’ rise “has caused a great deal of energy among the Democratic base and among independents who are excited to have a young, dynamic candidate for president.” And that will definitely help everyone.”
That enthusiasm could energize Democrats as they seek to expand the Senate battleground to Texas, where GOP Sen. Ted Cruz faces Democratic Rep. Colin Allred and is seeking a second term against Scott Mukarsel-Powell in Florida.
So far, Democrats have not committed any significant resources to any state, according to ad-tracking firm AdImpact. But Peters does not rule it out.
“Obviously, my first priority is to hold all of our existing Democratic seats, and that’s where most of our investments are right now,” Peters said. “But we also want to go on the offensive, and we’ll make investments as we see opportunities arise.”
Republicans, meanwhile, say the Senate race hasn’t changed dramatically even with the change at the top of the ballot.
“While there’s been a lot of change in the national environment over the last six to eight weeks, I think this Senate landscape is pretty stable,” said the GOP strategist, a former chief of staff to Senate Minority Leader Mitch McConnell, R-Ky.
Holmes noted that Republicans have focused on primary capture opportunities, not repeating the mistakes of trying to expand the Senate map from 2022.
“From our point of view, we knew it was just going to be a dogfight,” Holmes said, adding that campaigns, party committees and outside groups were “acting like it was a one-seat, two-seat, three-seat fight” to reach 55 or 60. not a fight.
Republicans are still cautiously optimistic about their chances in Maryland because former GOP Gov. Larry Hogan has a history of winning in the deep blue state. But while they are eyeing some possible targets in Democratic-leaning states like New Mexico, that path is less feasible without Biden dragging down his fellow Democrats.
“You have to have an environment where the wind is at your back,” said one GOP strategist who worked on Senate races, who was granted anonymity to discuss party strategy. “And I just don’t think we’re here yet.”
With Harris at the top of the ticket, down-ballot Democrats were more willing to campaign with their presidential candidate.
Harris’ rallies at the inauguration were attended by Democratic Sens. Tammy Baldwin of Wisconsin, Bob Casey of Pennsylvania and Jackie Rosen of Nevada, as well as Reps. Elissa Slotkin of Michigan and Ruben Gallego of Arizona. campaign days.
GOP Senate candidates have long been tied to Trump. The fact that all but Hogan spoke at the Republican convention last month is a sign of how closely their struggles are tied to Trump.
“You have very tight races where the choice among voters is whether you like the way things are or whether you want to go back to the economy of 2016, 2017, 2018, 2019.” said Holmes.
Republicans believe that voters’ concerns about the cost of living, immigration and crime will work in their favor up and down the ballot. And Democrats see abortion as a major issue on the map, likely boosting Senate candidates in states that have ballot measures to codify abortion rights protections, such as Florida, Arizona and Nevada.
But Democrats admit they still have an uphill battle ahead.
“It’s a tough map,” said a Democratic strategist involved in Senate races. “It’s going to be a tough map until Election Day.”