An assassination attempt on Donald Trump, President Joe Biden’s exit from the race, Vice President Kamala Harris’ rise to the top, two vice presidential picks and two conventions have rocked the election in the past six weeks. Now, a possible speech by independent Robert F. Kennedy Jr. could be the next big thing.
His own candidate is talking about considering whether to drop out, and now his campaign is preparing a big speech on Friday.
Polls show that Kennedy’s withdrawal would help Trump more than hurt him. But if that’s the case, he’s out — even though small differences ended up deciding the last presidential election.
What the poll tells us:
Republicans like Kennedy more than Democrats
This is evident from a national NBC News survey. In January, Kennedy received net favorable ratings from Republicans (+18) and independents (+4), while Democrats viewed him mostly negatively (-25).
Since then, the spread has increased. Fast forward July NBC News poll – Conducted before Biden’s departure – Kennedy was only in positive territory with Republican voters (+11), while negative among independents (-18) and Democrats (-38).
The result: Kennedy appeals more to Republican voters and his standing among independents has declined significantly.
Kennedy attracts nearly all of Trump’s third-party opponents
A national NBC News poll for July, too shows how the ballot changes from one with only two primary candidates to one with Kennedy on the expanded ballot.
In this poll, conducted before Biden’s departure, Trump is up 2 points among registered voters, 45% to 43%, with 12% wanting another candidate or not sure.
And when third-party candidates are included, Trump’s lead increases by 3 points, from 40% to 37%, with Kennedy at 10%, Jill Stein (Green Party) at 3%, Chase Olive (Libertarian) at 2% and Cornel West at 1% .
In that six-way poll, Trump retained 87% of voters who supported him in a head-to-head contest, with 10% going to Kennedy, 1% to Stein, and 1% to West.
By contrast, Biden maintained 85% of his bipartisan support, with 6% going to Kennedy, 3% to Stein, 2% to Oliver and 1% to West.
Other inquiries since then showed a similar trend, with Kennedy attracting more voters who said they would choose Trump than Harris in a two-way poll.
But not every survey is designed the same, including some of the ones highlighted below.
After Biden’s departure, the third-party vote declined
Since Biden left the race, the overall share of voters supporting Kennedy and third-party candidates in general has fallen, according to national and battleground polls. More voters choose Harris or Trump instead.
Nationally Washington Post/ABC News/Ipsos pollfor example, Harris won the support of 47% of registered voters, Trump 44%, Kennedy 5%, and Stein and West 2%.
Moreover, in an example of Kennedy’s varying influence in different polls, this poll shows Kennedy winning 3% of voters who support Harris and 2% of those who support Trump in a two-way contest.
And in it New York Times/Siena College Battleground Poll In Arizona, Georgia, Nevada and North Carolina, Kennedy’s combined share of the multi-candidate vote was just 4% – with the same percentage of Harris (3%) and Trump (3%) supporting him.
Bottom line: The potential share of Kennedy supporters is smaller than it used to be. But it could still be decisive in the upcoming elections.