Welcome to the online version of From the policy deskevening bulletin that brings you the latest reporting and analysis from the campaign trail, the White House and Capitol Hill from the NBC News Politics team.
In today’s edition, national politics reporter Alex Seitz-Wald reports on the House Democrat from Maine who walked away from the party’s convention. Plus, national political reporter Steve Kornacki puts the gender gap in the 2024 election into historical context.
Programming note: Tune in to a special edition of the Policy Desk newsletter each evening following the Democratic National Convention this week, bringing you the latest news and analysis from our team in Chicago.
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Far from the convention, a Democrat runs from Harris and distributes beer in rural Maine
By Alex Seitz-Wald
PHILLIPS, Maine — As most Democrats prepare to convene in Chicago, Rep. Jared Golden was looking for free hands to chill or drink a cold beer along the small-town parade route.
“You got my vote!” “F— Biden,” a man wearing a baseball cap yelled after Gold handed him a Bud Light wrapped in a campaign-branded koozie. An assistant pulled a rusty baby wagon filled with ice and beer and flavored seltzer.
Golden, a 42-year-old tattooed ex-Marine who says he “almost always” carries a concealed handgun, announced last week that he will not endorse Vice President Kamala Harris or even say how he plans to vote in November as a Democrat. He is looking to run for a fourth term in a district that Harris is sure to lose.
Gold has always stayed away from his party – and from the Congress where he belongs votes more often More with Republicans than any other Democrat and back home, where he is rarely seen with other Democratic officials outside of official events.
His TV commercials He explained how he fought the administration of President Joe Biden and how he worked with the administration of then-President Donald Trump. He has He did not participate in the meeting of the Democratic caucus of the House of Representatives From 2021. And he urged his party to end its apocalyptic “pearl clutching” over Trump’s alleged threat to democracy. He decries the “toxic” influence of his party’s “lifestyle leftism” which has alienated it from its working-class roots.
It will take more than a few Trump voters to split their tickets to Gila — an increasingly difficult task in this polarized era when all politics feels national — to win back one of the nation’s whitest and most rural congressional districts and the only one in New York. Britain supporting Trump in 2020.
While not every Democrat needs to court Trump voters as seriously as Gold, he and his allies worry that the party is losing touch with corners of the country by undoing efforts like his. Because Democrats are just four seats away from a House majority, every district counts.
At the parade, Linda Ross, wearing a Trump hat and spotless white “Trump 2024” sneakers, beckoned to Gold from the tailgate of a red pickup truck, where she watched the procession of homemade floats, tractors and vintage cars.
“You’re bipartisan and doing a good job!” Ross said.
🎙️Order: Back in Chicago, there is one most other prominent Democrats will speak on the second night of the party congress.
They include: former president Barack Obama; former First Lady Michelle Obama; second gentleman Doug Emhoff; Illinois Governor JB Pritzker; Senate Majority Leader Chuck Schumer; Senators Bernie Sanders of Vermont and Tammy Duckworth of Illinois; and New Mexico Governor Michelle Lujan Grisham.
The table also includes two Republicans: Trump’s former White House press secretary Stephanie Grisham and John Giles, Mayor of Mesa, Arizona.
🛣️ On the road: Meanwhile, Harris and Tim Waltz will travel north Rally tonight in Milwaukee.
And Trump He campaigned in Howell, Michigan this afternoon JD Vance Pressed in Kenosha, Wisconsin.
5️⃣ By the numbers: NBC News’ Kristen Welker and Mark Murray break down the five poll numbers that tell the story of the Democratic convention. More →
Follow the latest developments on the 2024 elections in our live blog →
How the gender gap in the Harris-Trump poll matches recent elections
By Steve Kornacki
The gender gap in this presidential race is quite wide. But whether this is a normal or an unusual gap depends on where you look.
All five of the most recent major national polls show Harris ahead among women, and all but one have Trump ahead of men:
In the context of modern politics, there is nothing particularly surprising about these figures. The gender gap has been a feature of American elections since 1980, when Ronald Reagan won the Republican nomination and shifted the party, which had long represented prominent leaders with moderate or even liberal social views, to the cultural right.
That fall, Reagan beat Jimmy Carter by 17 points in the men’s race and won the women’s race by one point. This gender distinction was a major break from the past, but has remained the norm ever since:
In the most recent national polls, the gender gap ranges from 7 to 22 points and is broadly in line with recent election results. From that point of view, Harris’ presence in the race did not shake up what had long been the norm when it came to gender and voting patterns.
But then there are the state polls on the battlefield — especially polls The New York Times and Siena College. The most recent party shows a widening gender gap since Harris became the Democratic nominee: 30 points in Georgia, more than 40 points in Wisconsin and Arizona, and nearly 50 points in Michigan:
There are caveats here. The new numbers represent a series of numbers from one pollster — one that found unusually high gender gaps even before Harris’s candidacy. With subgroup results like this, the margin of error is higher, with more room for statistical noise. That may help explain Pennsylvania’s outsider status, where the margin is actually 20 points lower than it was before Harris joined the race.
Still, the general trend in the NYT/Siena survey is striking. This suggests that there may be state-specific effects (from the massive advertising expenditures received by battleground states, or perhaps from the characteristics of abortion policy within a state) that may lead to excessively large gender gaps in some places.
If this is repeated consistently in future surveys, the gender gap could fall into the emergency category in 2024.
🗞️ The best stories of the day
- 🤔 Hard choices: Nicole Shanahan, Robert F. Kennedy Jr.’s running mate, said in a new interview that their campaign is faced with a choice between staying in the presidential race — which would “take a risk” to help Harris win — or “join forces.” With Trump. Meanwhile, the campaign said it was fair 3.9 million in the bank at the end of July. More →
- 🔵 Politics Corner: Harris’ gradual unveiling of his policy agenda underscored an important dynamic: He needs Democrats to control both houses of Congress for many of his biggest goals to have a fighting chance. More →
- 🗣️ Battle of the Words: Kentucky Gov. Andy Beshear, a Democrat, suggested that if Vance were to undergo a similar trial, he might gain more empathy for abortion advocates in tragic circumstances, comments that sparked protests from Vance and other Republicans. More →
- ☀️ If it’s Tuesday: It is the main day in Alaska, Florida and Wyoming. In the Sunshine State, Rep. Matt Gaetz faces a primary challenger backed by former House Speaker Kevin McCarthy, while the Senate seat will be officially set. More →
- 🗳️ On the ballot: NBC News’ Donna M. Owens looks at Democrat Angela Alsbrooks’ efforts to become the first black woman to represent Maryland in the U.S. Senate. More →
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