Vice President Kamala Harris’ rise to the top of the ticket has reignited the race for the House, with Democrats hoping to ride a new wave of energy into the majority and Republicans dampening dreams of dramatically widening the playing field.
After President Joe Biden dropped out of the presidential race, both parties are bracing for a tougher battle based on a small group of competitive districts, as Democrats need to pick up just four seats to take control of the House.
Biden was struggling in the primary battlegrounds even before his disastrous debate performance in June, and he recently admitted to CBS News his potential down-ballot drag contributed to his decision to drop out.
The delay has given some House Republicans confidence that they will not only hold on to their narrow majority, but also push deeper into Democratic territory this fall.
Representative Richard Hudson of North Carolina, chairman of the Republican National Committee. The Politico incident “I think we can expand the map,” he said at the Republican National Convention last month, noting that Republicans were looking at districts where Biden won by double digits in 2020.
Now, Hudson said in an interview with NBC News this week, “I think we’re in a different reality where the environment has hardened a little bit,” as an internal poll acknowledged the Democratic base has solidified around Harris.
Describing this election cycle as a “floor ship,” Hudson was still confident that Republicans would hold the majority and pick up seats. He argued that voters’ concerns about the cost of living and immigration would tie him to the Biden administration, and that Harris’s past liberal positions would turn off swing voters.
And among Democrats, there is clear optimism among candidates and strategists about taking back control of the House. This is a marked change from a few weeks ago, when there were sensitive party MPs avoid journalists at the Capitol to avoid questions about Biden.
Even with Biden in the race, Democrats still saw a path to a majority, noting that their candidate often outperformed him in the polls. But now there’s less pressure to top the ticket with a more popular presidential candidate.
“We were in a strong position,” Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee Chairwoman Susan DelBene of Washington told NBC News this week. “We are now in a stronger position”
Added Mike Smith, president of House Majority PAC, the main Democratic super PAC involved in House races: “The path has become clearer for us, especially because we’re running in districts that lean more Democratic in the first place.”
Since the beginning of the election cycle, the Democrats’ road to the majority has passed through 18 GOP-controlled House districts that Biden won four years ago, 10 of which are in historically blue California and New York. But Biden still trailed in the polls as voters voiced concerns about his age and Democrats said low enthusiasm level.
Now, key parts of the Democratic coalition — young, black, Latino and suburban women voters — are returning to the party with Harris, Smith said.
“We need the main groups to win. And we’re seeing growth in most, if not all, of our internal voting in many of these districts,” Smith said.
Still, Democrats have little room for error in such a small and evenly divided battleground. 22 The Cook Political Report with Amy Walter of the House of Representatives “jumps”, 11 are Democrats and 11 are Republicans. Both parties spent $265 million on ads after Labor Day in those 22 districts, with Democrats spending $135 million to Republicans’ $130 million, according to tracking firm AdImpact.
“The House race is really competitive, but we feel like we’re in a strong position,” said Dan Johnston, president of the Congressional Leadership Fund, the main GOP super PAC involved in House races. “Our working theory was that it was a very dense map. Now there are very few places in the country after competition.”
“The same prime seats at the beginning of the era are the same prime seats now,” he said.
Democrats revived
Democrats running in competitive districts say the party’s renewed energy around defeating former President Donald Trump has been reflected in an increase in donations and volunteers for the party as a whole.
“It’s hard to put into words how positive the change at the top of the ticket has been,” said Rep. Pat Ryan of New York, one of the vulnerable Democrats calling for Biden to step aside. “I mean, it’s like putting jet fuel in a jet engine and taking off. I have never seen anything like this.”
State Sen. Tony Vargas, the Democratic candidate for Nebraska’s competitive 2nd District, recalled his uncle breaking the news of Biden’s departure while at a family gathering.
“He was excited that we could actually get back to talking about solving these problems,” Vargas said. “And we’re not talking about Biden’s age or fitness anymore, and we can actually make a case against Trump.”
Vargas said about 100 volunteers knocked on doors the weekend after Biden dropped out, and half of them were first-time volunteers. Daily donations to his campaign quadrupled. Smith also said donor enthusiasm has “surpassed” in recent weeks.
That fundraising surge is especially troubling for Republicans, who have faced an onslaught of Democratic fundraising since Trump was first elected in 2016.
“The thing that keeps me up at night is the Democrats’ money advantage,” Hudson said.
During Thursday night’s GOP conference call, Hudson acknowledged the challenge of “surcharge Dem fundraising,” telling the conference it’s time to step up now and “do more to take advantage of the opportunity to pick up seats.” please call
Republicans are still optimistic
Hudson and other Republicans say they still have a good chance of staying in the House, arguing that Harris could be a liability for downvoting Democrats.
The NRCC issued a memo to GOP lawmakers after Biden’s campaign ended, calling on Republicans to call Harris an “extreme San Francisco progressive” and pointing to some of the positions he took during his failed 2020 presidential campaign, including his support for “Medicare for All.” and against fracking.
Some Republicans have already begun to follow that advice.
“They are the most radical ticket in American history,” said Alison Esposito, who is running against Ryan in New York’s 18th District.
A GOP group, Americans 4 Security PAC, recently launched a TV ad In the battleground state of California’s 13th District, Democrat Will Rollins said he “supports Kamala Harris and her radical agenda.”
But that may be harder to do if the GOP’s chief messenger is focused elsewhere.
“Our candidate doesn’t do a good job of focusing on the positions he’s taken in the past and how bad, how far to the left he is,” said Rep. Don Bacon of Nebraska, echoing other Republicans. Criticism of Trump To not reset Harris’ policy record and instead make comments about his race, laughs and crowd sizes.
The economy and abortion remain major issues
As one of the Republicans representing a district that Biden won in 2020, Bacon is a top Democratic target again this year. He said his race against Vargas was a “dead heat,” but he said he believed the issues were on his side.
“Overall, the economy is the No. 1 issue here,” Bacon said, adding that voters “have to make a choice to pay the utility bills or put food on the table.”
Democrats acknowledge that the high cost of living remains a major concern for voters in battleground House districts, even when adjusted for inflation. got cold.
“Every conversation I have is about the economic pressure people are facing,” said Ryan, Democrat of New York.
House Majority PAC’s Smith said Democrats need to actively talk about the issue on the campaign trail, noting, “If you ignore an issue, then we lose.”
Still, Democrats plan to go on the offensive on abortion and other issues in an attempt to paint the GOP as extreme.
“This is about our rights, our freedoms, our democracy and our future,” DCCC Chair DelBene said. “And the contrast between Republicans who want to take away reproductive freedom, hold our economy hostage, talk about cutting Social Security and Medicare, and attack voting rights.”
Democrats have already begun to make this claim. House Majority Forward, nonprofit arm of House Majority PAC launched a handful of ads Republicans have announced in recent days that they will support federal abortion bans.
“They’re trying to use different campaigns to change the subject from the issues voters care about,” Hudson responded. “I mean, poll after poll, issues like borders and inflation are more important to voters than abortion.”
As these attacks begin to air, both parties say they have strong candidates with their own brands who can withstand these missions and drop out of the presidential race if necessary.
But in an election year where the race for the White House dominates the headlines, it may be more difficult for House candidates to make their case to voters.
“I don’t care who you are, you wake up every morning to a tsunami of messages you don’t control,” said former DCCC chairman Steve Israel. “So it’s harder to cut that tick.”