To say the current political environment is a moving target is an understatement. A steady state for the first six months of 2024 turned into everything after that fateful debate night in June. And if you think trying to run a presidential campaign in this volatile environment is tough, try running a House or Senate race.
A month ago, the Democrats who were doing the most to convince President Joe Biden to drop out were being pushed off the ballot. Biden said this in an interview with CBS News over the weekend.
“Our polls showed it was a neck-and-neck race; It would have been down to the wire,” Biden said. “But what happened was that a number of my Democratic colleagues in the House and Senate thought I was going to hurt them in their race. If I stay in the race, I was worried that this topic will happen.”
It was as transparent as anyone gets about the process of persuading Biden to resign. But let’s take a closer look at what Biden means when he says “this will be the issue.” What became clear to him during the three-week campaign to convince him to step aside was that every battleground House and Senate Democrat was in the uncomfortable position of throwing out their own presidential standard-bearer. That’s because Republicans telegraphed at the start of the June debate that every Democrat would have to answer to “hide” Biden’s diminished abilities.
This is digital advertising The plan, released by Pennsylvania Republican Senate candidate Dave McCormick about a week before Biden withdrew his candidacy, was a plan. It was a combination of Democratic Senator Bob Casey’s defense of Biden’s ability to serve another four years, as well as Casey’s close relationship with the then-unpopular Biden.
Incumbent Democrats were gearing up for more ads, as they have in all of the House and Senate battlegrounds.
Given his lack of a large, loyal, personal political base, Biden realized he was a man on an island. While he believes there is enough anti-Trump sentiment to power him to victory, it would become him if the rest of the Democratic ticket shunned him and cast themselves as “Trump-checks” ahead of a GOP victory. he fulfills himself so that voters decide to oppose him.
So Biden chose the most rational way out of the conundrum he put his party in: He left the stage.
Almost immediately, Democrats saw a surge in support — mostly from disaffected Democratic voters. And this renewed comfort among the rank-and-file showed up not just in presidential polls, but in down-ballot campaigns as well.
So far, Vice President Kamala Harris has turned that expression of comfort into real speed when it comes to money and resources, which has sent her down the ballot.
About a month into this new Democratic reality, the question of who is the weaker presidential candidate for the down-ballot candidates is up for debate again. As of this writing, Republicans in battleground states and districts are now begging their candidates to change course. And yet, former President Donald Trump is not listening.
A good example of this gentle public nudge for Trump to change his approach comes from former presidential candidate Vivek Ramaswamy, who has been conducting media tours urging Trump to run his campaign in a more careful and even docile manner. Here is her latest public appearance, via NPRIn response to a question about how Trump turned around:
“Who will secure the border, who will develop the economy, who will stay out of the third world war? And more intangible … who will restore national pride in this country? I think Donald Trump has a strong case on all of these issues, and I think it would be good to focus on the policy differences between him and the Republican Party.”
Even so, in nearly every public forum Trump has attended since Harris’s ascension, he has failed to translate a message close to Ramaswamy’s advice.
It will not be difficult for a normal candidate. However, for Trump, it has been quite difficult. It’s clear from talking to people who know him well that he can’t handle losing to Biden in 2020. In 2020, Biden’s only personal hope of overcoming defeat was to defeat him in 2024. Now Biden has denied him that opportunity. .
He also doesn’t respect Harris as a competitor, and voters are picking up on that. Neglecting a candidate can turn voters against that campaign and toward the target. The best example of this? Hillary Clinton, who never saw Trump as a worthy opponent in 2016. The “deplorables” comment only reinforced this point.
Well, Trump falls into the same trap. The less respect Harris gets, the less the public will be afraid to give him a chance.
Now, some might argue that if he can’t handle this and turn around, then he should walk away from running like Biden. Putting aside the fact that Republicans have already held a momentary convention, it’s clear that if the GOP’s only focus was to give up the White House to Democrats, the best move would be to convince Trump to step aside and nominate a primary. second, Nikki Haley.
But as obvious as this may be to a political scientist, the reality of the GOP is quite different. After Trump’s shock election in 2016, the Democratic Party has largely been organized around one principle: stop Trump. This allowed the party to paper over many ideological differences for nearly a decade.
As for the GOP, Trump and his allies have done their best to mold the GOP in Trump’s image, and anyone who disagrees has essentially been purged. Even if down-ballot GOP candidates want to push Trump out of the party, rank-and-file Republican voters won’t take it the way Democrats do. In fact, it was more than acquiescence: rank-and-file Democrats joined Democratic elites in the primary clamor to oust Biden. (See polls showing less than half of Democrats “agree” with or passionate about Biden as a candidate long before the debate.)
All of this explains why Republicans, especially those invested in flipping the Senate or capturing the House, have publicly asked Trump to shift from a grievance-centric campaign to a policy-centric one. These Republicans know they would be better off if they had a candidate focused on the future rather than the past.
But what if Trump never turns around? So what are these low-voting Republicans doing?
Many down-voting Republicans in 2016 were comfortable running against Trump or simply ignoring him because both they (and many Republican voters) were skeptical of him and most Republicans—let alone Democrats and the media— they thought he would not win. All of this created an authorization structure that allowed Republicans like then-Sen. Pat Toomey of Pennsylvania will direct his race. He won re-election without endorsing or appearing with Trump.
No battleground Republican can do what Toomey did in 2016 and win in 2024. Toomey felt no pressure to appear with Trump at Pennsylvania rallies in 2016, but the same can’t be said for McCormick, the GOP candidate for U.S. Senate this year. state. If you doubt me, let me remind you of what Trump did in Georgia just a few weeks ago when he attacked Republican Gov. Brian Kemp for refusing to use (or abuse) his powers as Governor to help his efforts to cast doubt on his results. . 2020.
The last thing Republican candidates in key Senate races want in 2024 is for Trump to push them in the public eye for not showing up at his rallies (which he would). Perhaps the only Republicans who could qualify are former Maryland Gov. Larry Hogan or GOP Senate candidate Nella Domenici in New Mexico, whose name is synonymous with Republican politics.
The thing is, while Democratic base voters don’t punish a Democrat for running away from their presidential nominee (did you see how well Sherrod Brown stood up while demonstrating that he ran the Democratic Convention in Ohio?), there are plenty of options. Proof that GOP base voters will.
All of which brings me back to the question: What will the Republican candidates do if Trump never fully turns around? At some point, the obvious answer would be to campaign on a Harris presidency, similar to how Republicans ran against Clinton in 2016. However, this campaign will not be easy to implement. Just a public comment from some anonymous campaign staffer who is starting to distance himself from Trump and what he could do to this campaign.
Of all the competitive battleground Senate races, I’d argue that McCormick in Pennsylvania and former Rep. Mike Rogers of Michigan are in the most dangerous positions when it comes to Trump’s need to pivot. So pay attention to the messages these two campaigns are developing. The swing voters who don’t like Trump personally are the voters who need Rogers and McCormick. Can they find a way to send a message to Trump without alienating him — especially if Trump himself can’t make the obvious U-turn that any mainstream candidate in his position would?
Of course, the real challenge for both Republicans will be figuring out how to handle Trump’s appearances in their home states. If Trump’s numbers continue to decline, it will be tempting for these candidates to find some distance from him. Ultimately, even if reality stares the campaign in the face, it can be a fool’s errand. After all, if the top of the ticket is unpopular or undisciplined, there’s only so much a low-voting candidate can do.