Welcome to the online version of From the policy deskevening bulletin that brings you the latest reporting and analysis from the campaign trail, the White House and Capitol Hill from the NBC News Politics team.
In today’s edition, senior political editor Mark Murray analyzes Kamala Harris’ rise in the polls. Plus, deputy political editor Adam Wollner and reporter Vaughn Hillyard take a look at the volatile relationship between Donald Trump and Elon Musk ahead of the virtual debate.
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Biggest change in polls since Biden’s departure
By Mark Murray
Vice President Kamala Harris now leads in key battleground states of Michigan, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin. New York Times/Siena College pollsalthough his lead in those states is within the margin of error.
The same poll shows that independents have moved in Harris’ direction.
But as with these polls, this is the biggest change some other recent public inquiries: Harris is now more popular than he was before President Joe Biden ended his campaign — a dynamic that helped revive the 2024 presidential race.
In July NYT/Siena poll of PennsylvaniaBiden’s popularity among likely voters was fairly subdued, with 39% viewing him favorably and 59% viewing him unfavorably (-20 net rating). For comparison, let’s note that 45% had a positive opinion about former President Donald Trump, and 52% had a negative opinion (-7 net rating).
And Harris was 42% favorable and 55% unfavorable (-13 net rating).
Now? Half of likely voters view Harris favorably and 48% in Pennsylvania (+2 net rating). The same is true when combining the NYT/Siena polls in Michigan, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin.
In Pennsylvania, that’s a 22-point net popularity swing from Biden to Harris and a 15-point swing for Harris over the past month.
As for Trump, his approval rating in Pennsylvania is currently 48% favorable and 51% unfavorable (-3 net rating). When the three battlefield polls are combined, 46% of likely voters have a favorable opinion of him, while 53% have an unfavorable opinion (-7 net rating). This is where it was a month ago.
The big question is whether this big swing in the Democratic standard-bearer’s popularity is sustainable or just a temporary honeymoon for the party after Biden’s departure.
The answer will very well end up being that the winner of the election, which is now less than three months away, can be determined.
Trump’s event with Elon Musk highlights their volatile relationship
By Adam Wollner and Von Hillyard
Trump is set to join tech billionaire Elon Musk for virtual discussion on X, formerly known as Twitter, tonight at 8pm ET. The event will mark the latest chapter in Trump’s up-and-down relationship with the social media company, which is now owned by both Musk and the Tesla CEO.
Musk first began to gain praise on the right in June 2022, when he was in the process of acquiring Twitter — which Trump had been banned from following the January 6, 2021 riot at the US Capitol. Musk said he was voted Republican He endorsed Mayra Flores for the first time in a special House election in Texas.
But Musk quickly drew Trump’s ire and said “Prone” to Ron DeSantis in the 2024 GOP presidential primary. He also said Trump was too old to be president and should “swim off into the sunset.” Trump called Musk a “bulls— artist.”
Musk again Trump’s Twitter account has been restored In November 2022, the former president — once a prolific tweeter — did not immediately return after launching his own social media platform, Truth Social. DeSantis eventually launched a presidential campaign with Musk on Twitter, but the launch ran into technical difficulties. It made Trump very happy.
In the months since DeSantis left the race in January, Musk’s tune has begun to change. He He met with Trump and Republican donors March and increased his shares on social networks Criticizes Biden.
Musk made the announcement after Trump survived an assassination attempt last month “absolutely” approves of itand there it is created a super PAC to support the former president.
All of which brings us to tonight’s conversation between the two men. Trump before the event Continued to publish on X – This is only the second time Musk has done so since he defended the ban @realDonaldTrump account.
🗞️ The best stories of the day
- 💻 On the job: The FBI said in a statement that it is investigating what Trump’s campaign is portraying hack into its computer networks By an Iranian group. More →
- 🗣️ False AI claims: Trump falsely claimed that Harris’ campaign used artificial intelligence to manipulate images of crows at his rallies. More →
- ⚖️ Trump and the DOJ: Trump plans to sue the Justice Department and FBI for $115 million, claiming they are victims of “malicious political harassment.” More →
- 🎤 Dazzling: Next week’s Democratic National Convention in Chicago will feature some high-profile speakers, including Biden, former Presidents Barack Obama and Bill Clinton, and former Secretary of State Hillary Clinton. More →
- 💰 Here’s a tip: Harris et al Biden Joined Trump in calling for an end to payroll taxes. More →
- 🛋️ Democrats’ target: Democrats continued to joke about Sen. JD Vance and the false, vulgar rumor about the couch. More →
- 🤔 Just a thought: Vance said his past proposal to give more votes to people with children was a “thought experiment” rather than an actual policy proposal. More →
- 👀 Closing time (again): The Freedom Caucus is pushing House Republican leaders to make passage of new proof-of-citizenship requirements conditional on government funding, risking a possible shutdown a month before the election. More →
- 🎶 ‘Near, far, wherever you are’: Trump was denied permission to use Celine Dion’s “My Heart Will Go On” at a rally in Montana, according to the singer’s team. More →
- Stay up to date with the latest 2024 election news with our live blog →
That’s all for the Policy Desk for now. If you have feedback – like it or not – send us an email politicsnewsletter@nbcuni.com
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