With Harris in the race, ‘double haters’ are on the decline: From the Politics Desk

Welcome to the online version of From the policy deskevening bulletin that brings you the latest reporting and analysis from the campaign trail, the White House and Capitol Hill from the NBC News Politics team.

In today’s edition, national political reporter Steve Kornacki explains how the approval ratings of Vice President Kamala Harris and former President Donald Trump have improved. Plus, we look at tonight’s primaries in battleground Arizona.

Sign up here to receive this newsletter in your inbox every weekday.

With Harris in the race, the “double haters” are dwindling

By Steve Kornacki

Where did all the “double haters” go?

It would be too much to say that either of them are popular, but both former President Donald Trump and Vice President Kamala Harris are noticeably less popular after Harris emerged as the likely Democratic nominee.

In three major polls released last week, Trump posted favorability ratings that were among his highest ever. And Harris has seen a significant improvement from his previous favorability ratings and the consistently dismal levels President Joe Biden has been running from.

Trump’s 47% favorable rating is his best ever in the current iteration of the Wall Street Journal poll, which began in late 2021. Forty-seven percent is also its new high rating in the New York Times/Siena. request. While it may not seem like much, Trump’s 36% approval rating in the ABC News/Ipsos poll is the second best he has received in that poll of the 2020 campaign.

Trump’s new numbers also come after he survived an assassination attempt and was officially nominated at the Republican National Convention.

Meanwhile, Harris’ improvement over Biden is dramatic, jumping 9-13 points in those three polls compared to where Biden is running. So there are jumps from his previous levels as well. Before that, a Wall Street Journal poll tested his favorable score six times since early 2023, with 35% being his highest level — 11 points lower than where he is now.

Cross-over results from the New York Times/Siena poll show two demographic groups where Harris’s gains over Biden are clearest: Hispanic voters (up 9 points in favorability) and voters under 30 (up 13 points). Clearly, there was a gap between Biden’s nomination and what Democrats consider some key constituencies.

Those gains for both Trump and Harris, if held or even extended, would undermine a key variable in the 2024 presidential race: the “double haters,” voters torn between their dislike of both major party candidates.

They were a big block, at least until now. June questionnaire Pew Research Center found that 25% of voters are “double haters”. This drew parallels with the Trump-Hillary Clinton campaign in 2016, when 18% of voters in exit polls said they disapproved of both candidates. Trump scored 17 points on “binary haters” in that election. How to crack them this time has long seemed like a potentially crucial question.

But now? Of course, they still exist. The New York Times/Siena poll has “double haters” at 8% of voters. But that’s still higher than the 2020 election, when only 3% of voters said so exit pollers they didn’t like Trump or Biden.

Of course, the “double haters” may not have finished their feelings yet. Given that so many elements of this campaign have seemed completely frozen for so long, it’s surprising that there’s been such a significant change. It turns out that as many ideas are not as locked in place as many assume.

Trump’s influence can be seen in the Arizona primary

By Adam Vollner

After a month-long hiatus, tonight we return to the primary season in Arizona, a critical battleground where Donald Trump’s influence is growing.

Aides to the Republican presidential candidate appear all over Arizona’s ballot, including several candidates who lost key statewide races in 2022 on platforms based on electoral denial. Some continue to question the outcome of the last presidential race, as well as their own defeat.

Courtesy NBC News’ Alex Tabet and Adam Edelman, here are some of the best races to watch. Polls close at 10:00 PM ET.

Main Senate matchup: Tonight’s primaries are expected to officially set up a showdown between Republican Kari Lake and Democratic Republican Ruben Gallego, which could help determine which party controls the Senate.

Refusing to concede defeat in the 2022 gubernatorial race and questioning Joe Biden’s 2020 victory, Lake has been focused on the general election for months. largely ignored his two GOP primary rivals. Although Lake has received support from the campaign arm of Trump and Senate Republicans, he still faces skepticism Some in the party say he is too far to the right to win in November. Still, the question for Lake tonight is how big his margin of victory will be.

Gallego, a congressman from the Phoenix area and an Iraq War veteran, is running unopposed for the Democratic nomination.

GOP race in District 8: Arizona is hosting one of the most bitter House GOP primaries of the era, with a crowded field vying for the seat being vacated by Rep. Debbie Lesko.

The two main contenders are losers from failed 2022 statewide elections: Blake Masters, who lost his Senate bid to Democrat Mark Kelly, and Abe Hamadeh, who lost his campaign for attorney general by less than 300 votes (Hamadeh also ran). claimed stolen without proof).

The two spent much of the race making personal attacks against each other. He initially endorsed Hamade after Trump endorsed both of their nominations two years ago. But in an unusual move, Trump offered his support both candidates Weekend.

Other candidates include state Sen. Anthony Kern, who is among 18 Trump aides and allies was charged in April for their role in efforts by an Arizona grand jury to overturn the state’s 2020 election results; House Speaker Ben Toma was at the center of the GOP’s ultimately failed effort. block cancellation the state’s complete ban on abortion in 1864; and former Rep. Trent Franks, who served 16 years in Congress before him resigned suddenly In 2017, he admitted to discussing surrogacy with two former female employees.

The winner of the first place will be a heavy favorite for the seat in the fall.

Maricopa County Recorder: Stephen Richer, one The most outspoken defenders of Republicans election processes across the country, while fighting to keep its job as it prepares to head to the polls this fall in Maricopa, Arizona’s largest battleground county.

The administrative role of the Maricopa County recorder is extensive, including processing documents and overseeing the voter file and other parts of the election. Most notably since 2020, Richer has faced multiple attacks from Trump-inspired Republicans.

Richer’s primary challenger is state Rep. Justin Heap, who has dodged questions about whether the 2020 election was rigged. But he was supported by many of Arizona’s most prominent suffragettes, including Lake.

Read more about how Maricopa County election officials are trying to debunk election conspiracy theories →

That’s all for the Policy Desk for now. If you have feedback – like it or not – send us an email politicsnewsletter@nbcuni.com

If you are a fan, please share with anyone and everyone. They can register here.