Welcome to the online version of From the policy deskevening bulletin that brings you the latest reporting and analysis from the campaign trail, the White House and Capitol Hill from the NBC News Politics team.
In today’s edition, national political reporter Ben Kamisar breaks down our latest NBC News Deciders Focus Group series with Nikki Haley’s primary voters. Plus, great national political reporter Jonathan Allen.
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Haley voters face the new choice with the same skepticism
By Ben Kamisar
In less than a week, former President Donald Trump survived an assassination attempt, President Joe Biden decided not to run for another term, and Vice President Kamala Harris became the de facto Democratic nominee.
However, a new focus group of a core set of potential swing voters who are supporters of Nikki Haley in the 2024 GOP primary shows just how hard the views on the election are.
Those who applauded Trump for adopting a conciliatory tone in the immediate aftermath of the July 13 shooting now feel that he has returned to the candidate they once opposed. Those who said they would vote for the Democratic presidential candidate in the fall were already in the party before Biden’s announcement. And those on the fence about the general election still feel stuck there.
Conversations — Co-produced as part of the NBC News Deciders Focus Group series. Busy, Syracuse University and Sago — shows that this group of voters who voted against Trump’s Republican coronation earlier this year are generally unhappy with their choices in the fall.
Three participants plan to vote Democratic again in 2020. One currently plans not to vote. Participants in the remaining 10 focus groups split their votes evenly between Trump and third-party candidates, either unwittingly choosing the former president because of his broader support for GOP policies, or choosing to cast a protest vote to express frustration with the party’s direction.
“Determining who I vote for may depend on where the tears fall on the ballot,” said Audra B., 53, of Arizona, speaking about the choice between Trump and Harris. “I don’t like any of them, but I won’t have a chance to vote.” There are so many women who have come before me to make sure I get this opportunity, and I don’t want to waste it.”
After considering both major party candidates and third-party options, Audra said she currently plans to support Libertarian Chase Oliver after voting for Trump in 2020.
Read more from our focus group →
Shapiro veepstakes gets a double boost
Pennsylvania Gov. Josh Shapiro’s vice presidential prospects are getting a boost from expected and unexpected places.
Emma Barnett and Brennan Leach report Shapiro’s in-state allies especially public and vocal encouragement As Harris began his search to promote his governors. For example, the Philadelphia Democratic Party has publicly endorsed the Harris-Shapiro ticket.
Former Rep. Bob Brady, chairman of the Philadelphia Democratic Party, said that with Shapiro on board, Harris would win Pennsylvania, a critical swing state.
“I’m not guaranteeing anything, but I’m going to guarantee it,” Brady said. “There is no question about it. We are very enthusiastic, we are so upset.”
Meanwhile, Republicans see Shapiro as their VP candidate will likely give Harris a boost Allan Smith, Henry J. Gomez, and Katherine Doyle further complicate their efforts in their reporting.
Those Republicans say Shapiro could help broaden Harris’ appeal to independent voters and traditional Democrats who are drifting away from the party.
“I just think Shapiro is very powerful,” said one Trump ally. “And Republicans should be worried about that. If I were in his place, this would be the choice.”
The most important factor in Harris’ VP search
By Jonathan Allen
Presidential campaigns like to sound noble about their candidate selection. They talk about criteria such as who is better suited to run the country, who would make a good running mate, and how to get the party out of business without costing the Senate or the governorship.
But there’s only one factor that matters when Harris makes his choice — especially if, as Democrats tell us, democracy itself is on the ballot: who will help him win.
Of course, this can be reversed – whichever opponent deals the least damage – and often is. And part of that analysis should include whether voters see the VP candidate as ready to lead.
But make no mistake: This is a decision about cold, hard politics. Harris just watched as his party pushed Biden off the ballot because of the threat of losing. He may be certain that Democrats have a stomach for anything when it comes to beating Trump.
The best running mate they won’t stop at is someone they have a personal relationship with, a senator from a state with a Democratic governor or a governor from a state with a Democratic lieutenant governor, if that person costs them the White House. .
Under Trump, voters of both parties have become more comfortable and accustomed to crude politics. They expect it and in some cases demand it.
Finally, there is little evidence that the 2nd place on the ballot had a plurality of votes. But the choice can send important signals to voters about the presidential candidate’s judgment, values, and decision-making process.
Harris has plenty of viable options. It’s the luxury of sacrificing a win for something else he doesn’t have — another Democratic Senate seat, for example, or a weekly dinner companion he likes.
Democrats are understandably ecstatic that they have a new champion with great energy who can diversify the ranks of the American presidency. They will soon realize once again that Trump is a tough enemy, that the economy hasn’t changed with the switch on the ballot, and that they can’t focus on anything but winning.
More on Harris’ record:
- Biden asked Harris to tackle the “root causes” of migration. What happened nextBy Didi Martinez and Julia Ainsley
- Harris’s criminal justice policies in California have angered progressives and the policeBy Alexandra Chaidez, Simone Weichselbaum and Andrew Blankstein
More on Harris’ coalition:
🗞️ The best stories of the day
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- Follow the latest developments on the 2024 elections in our live blog →
That’s all for the Policy Desk for now. If you have feedback – like it or not – send us an email politicsnewsletter@nbcuni.com
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