In less than a week, former President Donald Trump survived an assassination attempt, President Joe Biden decided not to run for another term, and Vice President Kamala Harris became the de facto Democratic nominee in his place. And amid the panic, a new focus group of key potential swing voters — supporters of Nikki Haley in the 2024 election — shows just how hard-wired opinions are about the 2024 election.
Those who applauded Trump for adopting a conciliatory tone after the July 13 shooting now feel that he is the candidate they voted against in the Republican presidential race. All those who said they would vote for the Democratic presidential nominee in the fall were already on board before Biden’s announcement.
Those on the fence about the 2024 presidential race still feel stuck there.
Conversations — Co-produced as part of the NBC News Deciders Focus Group series. Busy, Syracuse University and Sago — show that this group of people who voted earlier this year to protest Trump’s Republican coronation are generally unhappy with their choices in the fall.
Three participants plan to vote Democratic again in 2020. One currently plans not to vote. The remaining 10 focus group participants split their votes evenly between Trump and third-party candidates, either reluctantly choosing Trump because of their broader support for GOP policies or choosing to vote against him to express frustration with the party’s direction.
“Determining who I vote for may depend on where the tears fall on the ballot,” said Audra B., 53, of Arizona, speaking about the choice between Trump and Harris. “I don’t like any of them, but I won’t have a chance to vote.” There are so many women who have come before me to make sure I get this opportunity, and I don’t want to waste it.”
After considering both major party candidates as well as third-party and independent options, Audra said she currently plans to vote for Libertarian Chase Oliver after voting for Trump in 2020.
The other two said they supported Oliver, but unlike Audra, both also supported third-party candidates in 2020.
“I think Libertarian is more in line with my views than the other three [third-party candidates]. So it’s kind of showing support for those ideas and hopefully people will see that there’s a voter out there and try to get them more involved for the next election,” said Jason L., 34, of Arizona.
“This will be the third presidential election in a row that I’ve voted Libertarian, and it’s been a protest vote, just like this election,” said John D., 49, of Wisconsin.
“While I struggle with the fact that the candidate I’m voting for doesn’t have a chance to win like Jason said, I hope the Libertarian candidate gets enough votes to get attention. of the other two parties and possibly move their platforms in this direction,” he continued.
Perhaps for a group that did not support Trump in the GOP primaries, voters’ impressions of Trump were overwhelmingly negative. When asked to say the first word that came to mind when they heard his name, almost all of them said something negative, including “selfish,” “bombastic,” “polarizing” and “shithole.”
“I like the way he runs the country, but I don’t like the way people downgrade him. Calling people names, stuff like that. It’s unnecessary, he needs to improve it,” said Ronnie B., 71, of North Carolina, a Trump supporter.
When Harris was mentioned, the responses were more mixed. Most of the positive sentiment came from those planning to vote Democratic in November. But Barbara Z. Harris, a 62-year-old Michigander who plans to endorse Trump in the fall as in 2020, said she was “interested.”
“I just like that she’s a woman. It’s time for a woman to be at the forefront,” said Barbara Harris when asked what she likes. (He also praised Trump’s handling of the economy, but said he “thinks only for himself, not for the country.”)
However, most of these voters were lukewarm toward Harris, at best unfamiliar with the specific policies or positions he held. Many criticized Harris, describing him as “catty at times”, “giggly” or “condescending” or saying that he sometimes sounded like “word salad” when he spoke.
“I think she’s out of her league and there are a lot of people, men or women — I mean women — who would be better suited for the role,” said Dale J. Trump, 67, a Minnesotan who supports Trump.
“Harris will have a real challenge to win over a majority of these former Haley voters. Despite three and a half years as vice president, they were very skeptical that he was ready for the job,” said Margaret, director of the Institute for Democracy, Journalism and Citizenship at Syracuse University in Washington. Talev said.
“A few said they still didn’t know much about him or linked him to the Biden administration’s failures to control illegal immigration, and some raised sexual concerns about features like his laugh.”
Haley finished second to Trump in the Republican primary, in some ways an outlet for Republican-aligned voters to urge their party to move in a different direction instead of anointing Trump. In the final weeks of the campaign, before dropping out, his criticism of Trump (as he called Trump) intensified. “unopened” and “more reduced” “The first party that retires its 80-year-old candidate will win this election,” he told NBC News in February and in January.
Even after he dropped out, significant shares of Republican primary voters still voted for him (including several focus group participants).
But while Haley later spoke at the Republican convention endorsing Trump, those voters were unimpressed by her words and saw it more as her trying to stay politically alive.
Biden’s decision and the decision facing Harris
The massive shakeup over the presumptive Democratic ticket hasn’t swayed any attendees about which party they’ll support in the fall. And they broadly agreed with Biden’s decision, even criticizing the president at times.
“I praise him because at the end of the day he is doing it for something higher than himself, he is doing it for his party. Very good for him. Not necessarily my party, but he’s doing something selfless,” said Zach R., 30, of Wisconsin, a Trump supporter.
Jennifer S., 49, of Pennsylvania, said she was leaning toward Robert F. Kennedy Jr. after voting for Trump in 2020.
“I don’t think he did it because it was the right thing to do. He did it because he had to,” he said.
Despite Biden’s big decision, one of the main reasons for the lack of action among these voters is that 10 out of 14 say Harris is a continuation of policies they widely criticize from the Biden administration.
“Many Haley primary voters watched the Democrats switch from Biden to Harris and concluded that the party had traded one set of candidate deficiencies for another,” said Rich Thau, president of Engagious, who moderated the sessions.
But those voters rejected attacks by Republicans who argued that Biden should resign if he could not run for another term, as well as a move to promote Harris for this term despite his absence from the Democratic presidential nomination process. it’s kind of anti-democratic.
“In my opinion, the votes cast for Biden were cast for the Biden-Harris ticket. So if Biden’s not on the ticket, I believe it’s still a vote for Harris because he already has him as his running mate,” said John D. of Wisconsin, who voted for the Libertarian candidate.
Harris’ elevation to Democratic presidential nominee status hasn’t changed anyone’s mind, and it seems there’s little he can do to get those voters on board with his vice presidential pick — other than bringing Haley onto the unity ticket.
However, Arizona Democratic Sen. Mark Kelly seemed more familiar to this group of voters than other potential vice presidential candidates.
“The only name that comes to mind is Mark Kelly,” said Kristel T., 59, of Georgia, who voted for Biden in 2020 and now plans to vote for Harris.
“He was an astronaut.”
Trump changes, then comes back
8 of these voters said that their opinion about Trump changed after he faced the assassination attempt. But that was short-lived for most, who believe Trump has backed away from his call for unity.
“I listened to the Republican convention every night and heard the speeches, and then Trump said he tore up his original speech, which was his normal turn. And he came back with his state of the union speech, and he wasn’t going to use Joe Biden’s name, he wasn’t going to call him names anymore. Then my respect for him grew,” said Ronnie B., a North Carolina voter who voted for Trump.
“What he said lasted about three days and now he’s back to his old self. … It looks like it’s back to normal,” Ronnie continued.
Dale J., a Minnesotan who voted for Trump, agreed.
“He was a bit more sensitive and had a more human side to him,” she said, before adding: “I think he’s probably changed, but he’s changing back.”
“While the assassination attempt against Trump and suggestions that he is a changed man made him seem more empathetic to some of these voters, he largely erased any goodwill or hope in his 93-minute convention speech,” Talev added.