How Harris’ candidacy reshapes the battle for Congress: From the Politics Desk

Welcome to the online version of From the policy deskevening bulletin that brings you the latest reporting and analysis from the campaign trail, the White House and Capitol Hill from the NBC News Politics team.

In today’s edition, Capitol Hill reporters Sahil Kapur and Scott Wong examine how Kamala Harris’ presence at the top of the Democratic ticket is changing the dynamics of downvoting. Plus, national political reporter Steve Kornacki breaks down polls showing fewer undecided voters in a Donald Trump-Harris matchup.

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How Harris’ candidacy is reshaping the race for Congress

By Sahil Kapoor and Scott Wong

Soon, President Joe Biden will be replaced by Vice President Kamala Harris the de facto Democratic nominee not only intensifies the race for the White House. It also reshapes the dynamic for both parties in key races set to decide control of Congress.

For Republicans, the calculus changes dramatically. Their candidates embraced former President Donald Trump and sought to tie Democrats to an aging and unpopular Biden to win competitive House and Senate races. Now they’re looking for a way to get back at Harris, and GOP operatives are already testing new lines of attack on him.

Candidates running in the Democratic battlegrounds still plan to localize their races as much as possible. But lawmakers and party workers are now hoping to ride the wave of enthusiasm from Harris’ campaign in downstate races.

GOP strategists have said their priority is to craft and paint a negative portrait of Harris in the minds of voters, using some of the issues on which they have attacked Biden, such as immigration, crime and inflation.

House Speaker Mike Johnson, R-La., tested some of those lines on Tuesday.

“Kemala Harris’s crises: the border crisis, the inflation crisis, the crime crisis, everything that’s happening with the economy, our national security, weakness on the world stage. He’s an equal partner in all of this,” Johnson told reporters. “What has he done but mess things up? We love it, we love that Kamala Harris is at the top of the ticket.”

Meanwhile, Democratic strategists say their candidates will continue to run state-specific Senate campaigns and district-specific House campaigns. Many of those candidates were outscoring Biden in the months before he left, and party insiders expect that to continue with Harris, whose favorable ratings have also dipped in recent polls.

Rep. Angie Craig of Minnesota, another vulnerable Democrat who pushed for Biden to drop out, said there was a “tremendous energy” in the Democratic Party after Biden’s announcement, especially among young people.

“You see a lot of people like me in the swing area who don’t like their two choices. They understand that now they have new options,” Craig said in an interview on the floor of the House of Representatives. “And I think a lot of those swing voters are going to be willing to take a second look at the vice president because it’s not the same ticket that he was on top of 48 hours ago.”

Read more from Sahil and Scott →

On the way: Harris held his first campaign rally near Milwaukee on Tuesday, where he sharply criticized Trump. Nnamdi Egwuonwu and Summer Concepcion write.

Referring to his background as a prosecutor, Harris told the crowd of more than 3,000, “I’ve taken on all kinds of criminals. Predators who harass women, scammers who rob consumers. Fraudsters who break the rules of their game.”

“Hear me when I say I know Donald Trump’s type,” he said.

Harris also continued to shore up Democratic support with endorsements from Senate Majority Leader Chuck Schumer of New York and House Minority Leader Hakeem Jeffries. Frank Thorp V, Ryan Nobles and Kate Santaliz report.

Veepstakes: Harris’ team requested screening materials from five possible running mates Monica Alba and Yamiche Alcindor: North Carolina Governor Roy Cooper, Pennsylvania Governor Josh Shapiro, Arizona Senator Mark Kelly, Michigan Governor Gretchen Whitmer and Minnesota Governor Tim Waltz.

Many of the names on the list are from important battleground states. Lawrence Hurley also notes that he mentioned Shapiro’s name for the first time is fighting then-President Trump in court As Attorney General of Pennsylvania.

Follow the latest developments on the 2024 elections in our live blog →

More NBC News coverage of Harris

Harris’ campaign could sway undecided voters in both directions

By Steve Kornacki

Harris begins his bid for the White House right where Biden left off: nationally just a few points behind Trump.

Democrats are clearly counting on Harris presidential campaign spread will change the way voters view him and this race, creating a meaningful improvement in polling. And a new request Reuters/Ipsos (Harris 44%, Trump 42% among registered voters) very modestly and tentatively gives their optimism a boost.

But previous voting hints at what could be a potentially significant difference in this new adaptation. In fact, it suggests that the number of voters willing to pick a side may increase when faced with a Harris-Trump contest.

Take ours National NBC News survey, was carried out two weeks ago. Biden vs. Trump 45% to 43%; Against Harris, Trump was ahead 47% to 45% (both results are within the margin of error). That’s the same 2-point spread, but Harris’ share of the vote is 2 points higher than Biden’s, just as Trump’s opponent is up 2 points with Harris.

Similar changes can be found elsewhere. A The Quinnipiac University poll was conducted largely before Biden’s departure and was released on Mondayfor example, Trump led Biden 48% to 45%; With Harris holding on, the result was 49% to 47% in favor of Trump. And a Morning Consult questionnaire A survey conducted after Biden’s withdrawal had Trump ahead of Harris 47% to 45%, while the previous poll had Trump ahead of Biden 47% to 41%.

Overall, six primary polls conducted over the past month have shown Harris-Trump’s overall vote share higher than Biden-Trump’s in the runoff:

Not all recent polls have found this, though that’s largely because several prominent polls ask undecided voters which candidate they’re leaning toward and then mark those voters as supporters of their candidate. This leaves the poll results with Democrats and Republicans combined vote shares add up to 100% — when various adaptations are tested, no difference remains.

In addition, a diary NPR/PBS NewsHour/Marist College survey Tuesday’s release found a sharp increase in the undecided vote share with Harris as the Democratic nominee. But a change in methodology can account for it.

Why more voters would be more willing to side with Harris as the Democratic nominee is an interesting question. We’re talking about small overall changes here, so pinpointing the exact demographics is tricky.

In our NBC News poll, however, two main groups stood out: black voters who said they were dissatisfied with Trump as a candidate, and Republican voters:

Biden has a 57-point lead among black voters, while Harris has a 64-point lead in an NBC News poll. Among dissatisfied Republicans, Trump’s lead increased from 46 points against Biden to 47 points against Harris.

Harris’ entry into the race appears likely to motivate the bulk of each party’s traditional base to defect and join their own partisan team. In our poll (and others), the net effect is essentially zero, with both Harris and Trump gaining new support.

But more broadly, it suggests there are voters across the political spectrum who want to revisit the presidential race with Harris. And that means that as voters engage in this candidate-switching process, each side may have the potential to grow their previously held pie and create a clear advantage.

That’s all for the Policy Desk for now. If you have feedback – like it or not – send us an email politicsnewsletter@nbcuni.com

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