Democratic congressional candidates have raised serious campaign cash over the past three months, with new fundraising reports showing the party is battling an increasingly well-funded GOP and pending questions On the strength of President Joe Biden at the top of the ticket.
The fiscal picture is generally positive for Democrats — in the 10 most competitive Senate races, all but one of their front-runners outspent their Republican challengers, as did every Democratic House front-runner in seats rated as “drop-offs” by nonpartisans. Cook Political Report with Amy Walter.
Still, Republicans feel good about where they are, as many of the top House candidates are raising money for a tough fall, while some top Senate candidates are using their personal wealth to keep up with their opponents. And the overall picture of the Senate remains friendly to the GOP.
But all this happens after historical upheavals attempted assassination like former President Donald Trump and Democrats are mulling over whether Biden should be their presidential nominee — a dramatic and difficult turn of events that could cast a long shadow over the November election.
Democratic Senate candidates have been working to distance themselves from the top of the ticket before Biden’s disastrous debate performance last month, and are expected to continue to do so.
Last week, Sen. John Tester, Democrat of Montana launched a TV ad “I voted to force the Biden administration to expand drilling, to lower energy prices, to force drug companies to lower prescription drug prices,” he said, saying he was “taking everybody on board” to address rising costs.
Republicans expected to continue to tie these vulnerable Democrats to Biden. Separation from the top of the ticket is a more pressing issue for Tester and Sen. Sherrod Brown of Ohio, the two Democratic senators running for re-election in 2020 in states easily won by Trump.
Both senators still lead their Republican rivals in fundraising, with Brown raising $12.8 million in the second quarter to GOP businessman Bernie Moreno’s $4.4 million. Brown finished the season with more than twice as much money in his account. Meanwhile, Tester raised $10.6 million, compared to $5.3 million for Republican Tim Sheehy, including a $1 million personal loan. And Tester ended the quarter with a campaign score more than three times larger than Sheehy’s.
Sheehy, an entrepreneur, is among the wealthy Republican candidates who have used their wallets to fuel their campaigns. GOP Sen. Rick Scott of Florida loaned his campaign $5.6 million; Eric Hovde, a Republican running for Wisconsin Senate, loaned $5 million to his campaign; and loaned $3.1 million to Republican Senate candidate Dave McCormick’s campaign in Pennsylvania.
While some Republicans reported raising money through other fundraising arms, individual campaign reports filed Monday showed they still trailed their Democratic rivals. In all but one of the 10 competitive races, Democratic Senate candidates received more votes than their GOP rivals, winning $90.6 million to Republicans’ $64.4 million.
Democrats also ended June with more money in their accounts in all but two of those competitive races. Top Democrats finished the quarter with a total of $84.4 million, while Republicans had $51.1 million.
“Battle-tested Senate Democrats’ strong fundraising is once again a testament to the support they have from constituents and grassroots supporters,” Tommy Garcia, a spokesman for the Democratic Senatorial Campaign Committee, said in a statement. “While every day brings new revelations about the lies, baggage and disqualifying flaws of Republican Senate candidates, Senate Democrats are building winning campaigns and communicating with voters about how they fight for the priorities that matter most to hard-working Americans.”
Republicans haven’t sweated the Democrats’ consistent fundraising advantage, in part because of Biden’s own struggles in key Senate states.
“They need to redefine themselves. They should avoid Biden,” Rep. Steve Daines, R-Mont., chairman of the National Republican Senatorial Committee, said last week when asked about the Democratic fundraiser.
“I’m happy to pay for the gas for Air Force One to fly Joe Biden to any of these states like Montana and Ohio,” Daines said. “Jon Tester and Sherrod Brown want to distance themselves thousands of miles from Joe Biden, so their ads will try to provide that distance. But the reality of their voting record is that they are tied at the hip.”
The battle for the house
In House races, Democrats have enjoyed a massive fundraising boom since Trump took office in 2017, which shows no signs of abating this election cycle. But Democrats in key races must also weigh the outcome of Biden’s debate — after which 18 House members called on Biden to step down as the party’s nominee, including five in races rated competitive by the Cook Political Report. Two other swing-seat Democrats said Trump would win the election, while another stopped short of calling for Biden to drop out.
A spokeswoman for the National Republican House Committee told NBC News that its polling over the past few months has generally shown Democratic House candidates less favorable than Biden.
On the fundraising front, 35 Democratic House candidates rated competitive by the Cook Political Report raised $1 million in the second quarter, compared to 17 Republicans who did so in those races.
But officials from both parties appeared to have strong second-quarter results. An NBC News analysis of these Chef-rated locations shows that, on average, incumbents raised funds at a similar clip on both sides and collected the same amount of cash. The average incumbent Democrat raised $981,000 and had $2.5 million in cash on hand as of June, compared to $940,000 raised and $2.4 million for Republicans.
Washington Democrat Rep. Marie Gluesenkamp Perez, who won the 2022 election by less than 1 percentage point in a district Trump won by 4 points in 2020, Data from Daily Kos Elections, was the top earner in Cook’s toss-up locations. It raised $2.2 million and increased its cash reserves to more than $4 million.
In a district where Biden won by 10 points in 2020, New York Republican Rep. Mike Lawler, who won by less than 1 point in 2022, raised $1.6 million, more than any other Republican in the “proposition” seat.
But there is a significant difference in fundraising by opponents who want to go on the offensive and change seats for their parties.
The average House Democratic challenger in this Cook ranking races (among those officially running for the nomination) raised almost $1.3 million last quarter and took in $1.8 million, while the usual House Republican challenger who won the nomination raised less than $500,000 and also has about $500,000 on hand .
In six of Cook’s nine Democratic-tossed seats, the Democrat won more than twice what his Republican opponent did in the second quarter. And in eight of those nine races, the Democratic candidate had more than three times as much cash on hand as the top Republican.
Perez and Lawler take a look at this dynamic. None of the Republicans running against Perez raised more than $310,000. But Lawler’s opponent in the fall, former Democratic Rep. Mondaire Jones, trailed him last quarter, earning just over $1.6 million.
One Republican strategist in the House race compared the GOP’s current fundraising efforts to “building a moat” to insulate themselves from well-funded Democratic challengers.
“We don’t need more money from the Democrats — it’s a really strong environment and we have a really strong recruiting class,” said one Republican strategist, who spoke on condition of anonymity to speak candidly. “We just have to have enough to be competitive in the air, and that means not wasting 3-, 4-, 5-on-1s in the air, which was dynamic in some of these races last cycle. If some candidates have strong cash in their hands in the 2nd quarter, we are not losing sleep.”
But the strategist raised concerns about GOP challengers failing to find ways to raise money, arguing that “if you can’t tell a story about yourself, you become the bad things Democrats say about you. in the air.”
Viet Shelton, spokeswoman for the Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee, told NBC News that the party had strong fundraising.
“House races have always been about the strength of our candidates, so you’re seeing this kind of fundraising momentum from Democrats across the country,” Shelton said. the link is rounded the end internal voting From both parties showing mixed results between contested House seats.
“Voters know that when the Democrats are in the majority, the extreme Republicans just sow chaos. That’s why the latest polls show that the Democrats are beating their Republican opponents on the battlefield,” Shelton added.