President Joe Biden trailed former President Donald Trump — albeit by a margin of error — in many national and battleground polls ahead of Biden’s debate.
Now, Biden is trailing by more than 1-2 points in some polls, but the movement is still within the margin of error, and few of the results reflect a radically changed race — although in our polarized and deeply divided politics, the campaign could very well be. it hangs on such edges.
The vote comes 11 days after Biden’s disastrous debate performance, as a handful of Democrats have called on the president to drop out, and a defiant Biden insists he’s staying on the 2024 campaign. “I’m not going anywhere,” he said MSNBC’s “Morning Joe.”
Which polls reflect minimal change in polling showed After Trump’s criminal indictment in late May — a small move that could matter a lot in a close presidential campaign, but nothing that suggests a fundamentally changed race compared to what came before.
Conduct national surveys. Before the debate, Trump was leading Biden by 1 point among likely voters in a CBS News/YouGov poll. Now he is its host 2 points — within the margin of error.
In a national poll conducted by CNN in April before the debate, Trump had advanced by 6 points. After the argument? was one the same 6 points.
The biggest movement came from him National New York Times/Siena College poll, but even that move didn’t suggest a sea change in the race for two weeks. Before the debate, according to the same poll, Trump led Biden by 6 points among registered voters and 4 points among likely voters.
After the debate, Trump’s lead over Biden was 8 points among registered voters and 6 points among likely voters. That’s a 2-point swing in Trump’s direction.
Battlefield polls also show stability
Then there is the provincial election on the battlefield. Bloomberg News/Morning Consult polls The race released over the weekend showed a largely tight race, with Trump slightly ahead in Arizona, Georgia, Nevada, North Carolina and Pennsylvania, and Biden ahead in Michigan and Wisconsin. All but Trump’s 7-point lead in Pennsylvania were within the margin of error.
(That’s hard to reconcile with Biden’s 7-point lead in Pennsylvania, but a 5-point lead in the Bloomberg/Morning Consult poll.)
The exception to this fixed voting a Saint Anselm Survey of New Hampshire, which showed Trump narrowly ahead, albeit by a margin of error, in a multi-candidate field. Recall that the Democrats have won every presidential election in New Hampshire since 2000.
While the Topline results don’t paint a picture of a fundamentally altered race, what there is Perceptions of Biden’s health quickly changed during the debate.
The CBS/YouGov poll found the share of voters who believe Biden has the mental and cognitive health to be president fell to 27% in June from 35% after the debate — a bigger change than the CBS poll showed in the horse race.
Important questions to ask
National Democrats are panicking after Biden’s debate performance and the aftermath — with good reason.
But the vote raises important questions: Why didn’t they panic before the debate when the numbers already showed the incumbent facing a tough road to re-election? Are national Democrats and progressive media voices simply catching up to where many voters are concerned about Biden’s age and health?
Are most voters locked into their perceptions of both Biden and Trump, which explains why seismic events — like Trump’s conviction or Biden’s debate performance — haven’t changed the poll numbers?
And could another seismic event swing the race a few notches in the other direction for voters who don’t hold the race?
After all, there have been at least four cases so far he moved a little numbers in this steady race over the past year — the Israel-Hamas war, the results of Biden’s State of the Union address, Trump’s conviction and the June 27 debate.
Will there be another? You can probably count on that.