Momentum in presidential politics is changing rapidly.
Just ask Donald Trump.
In less than a week, Trump has had legal problems is significantly minimized So far by the courts, he has a cash deficit in what was once a fearsome campaign they all disappearedand a disastrous debate performance Not only did Trump extend his lead in some public polls over President Joe Biden, Biden also found himself at odds with many in his own party who believed the 81-year-old president was unfit to run for re-election.
“Big Mo is clearly on Trump’s side,” South Carolina GOP Chairman Drew McKissick said, using a slang term for the “momentum” he believes the Republican has gathered over the past week. “From the national polls to most of the battleground state polls and him setting fundraising records, it’s been a great few weeks.”
The politics of the 2024 race may seem like a split screen right now, with everything on one side and everything on the other before last week’s Atlanta debate.
In late May, Trump became the first former president a convicted felon and trailed Biden and the Democrats in fundraising for most of the year. What’s more, even after his conviction, there was the prospect of further legal trouble dogging his campaign through the 2024 election cycle.
That began to change when he took credit for his big fundraising returns and then saw his opponent turn in a disastrous debate performance.
The latest blow to Trump came this week when the US Supreme Court ruled Trump victory, saying the president’s primary functions are immune from prosecution, a decision that could prevent the prosecution he still faces. As a result of that decision, a judge remained silent in the New York money case on Tuesday deferred judgment a jury found him guilty of falsifying business records related to hush money payments to a porn star in the run-up to the 2016 election.
His sentencing was originally scheduled for next week, but now won’t take place until at least September — a delay that helps Trump avoid cementing the severity of his crime in the minds of voters by handing down the sentence. Trump extends Biden’s cycle of bad news as he heads to the Republican National Convention in less than two weeks.
The Biden campaign and top surrogates acknowledged that Biden’s debate performance was not good, but tried to make up for it in a series of phone calls. calm your fears supporters and donors said it was a one-off poor performance. They argue that Biden is not only up to the task of defeating Trump, but that he is the only one who can in an election cycle predicated on Trump being an existential threat to democracy.
“The stakes in the state and the race remain the same,” said James Singer, a spokesman for the Biden campaign. “America has a choice between Donald Trump: a 34-time felon who is out for himself, who wants to destroy our democracy, take away our rights, and make himself a dictator with Supreme Court immunity.” And Joe Biden: a president who fought for our families, defended our democracy, fought for our rights, and delivered real results for the American people.
However, on Tuesday Rep. Lloyd Doggett, D-Texas First Democrat in Congress Urging Biden and other Democratic governors to withdraw from the 2024 race they gathered to discuss party way. Biden is on a video call with some governors on Wednesday to address growing concerns.
Many public polls following the debates offer a bit of a political Rorschach test.
To argue that the past week hasn’t changed the fundamentals of the race, Biden supporters point to polls like the one CNN found. from 5% registered voters He said the discussion had changed his mind, separate 538 request that “the debate did not change many voters’ minds about either candidate” and Reuters vote It was tied 40-40 in this race. (NBC News has not independently verified these requests.)
To the contrary, nearly every post-debate poll showed Trump ahead of Biden, with others reinforcing Biden’s debate stage gaps. he feels that he is very old to be commander and chief and the vice president is Kamala Harris Voting is better now Biden vs. Trump.
Republicans also hope that now at least one state that was not in play recently can be won by Trump – New Hampshire.
“I now firmly believe that Donald Trump will win New Hampshire,” said Chris Ager, chairman of the New Hampshire Republican Party. “I was optimistic until last week, but I thought it was going to be a very difficult road.”
New Hampshire is a perfect picture of how the last five days have accelerated in Trump’s favor.
No Republican has won the state since George HW Bush in 2000, and Biden won the Granite State by more than 7 points. But a poll that emerged after the debate boosted Biden only 2 points in the province, although such a survey immediately after a major event sometimes fails to fully capture the outcome of the event.
“After the debate, Republicans who might not be here with Trump are now with Trump saying, ‘This can’t be Biden,'” Ager said. “It cemented his foundation here.”
Some Biden supporters see the past week as potentially a near-term drag on the president’s campaign, but one that will serve to strengthen his political base in the long run and get them to the polls.
“Look, I think it’s good for Joe Biden,” said John Morgan, a Florida-based attorney and major Democratic donor. “Now the rug has been pulled out from under them all. He [Trump] can never go to jail. Some are angry about it. Do you know what they will do? Vote.”
Morgan, who is in the planning stages for Biden’s charity event at his Florida home, said the hush-hush lawsuit was irrelevant because it was “bulls—- from the beginning,” but said things like the U.S. Supreme Court’s immunity ruling on Monday. can boost intensity.
“I believe the anger and frustration will go away. People will ask why he becomes king. Why is he above the law?” said Morgan. “That anger will manifest itself with a vengeance and help tip the scales for Biden.”
The immunity decision was Trump’s latest political victory in recent days, but it raised serious concerns among Democrats and Republicans who do not support Trump that it could ultimately push him closer to unfettered power in a second term, a major shift. the rule of law has long meant.
“No one, no one is above the law, not even the president “The United States,” Biden said at a White House news conference Monday night to address the immunity decision.
However, the decision served to secure more legal victories for the former president. If immunity had not ruled in his favor, Trump’s lawyers would not have sought a delay in sentencing on his quiet New York money trail.
The delay in Trump’s sentencing may now serve to remind voters of the trial closer to Election Day. But after the judge granted that delay, Trump predictably took a big victory lap.
“COMPLETE JUSTIFICATION!” on Truth Social on Tuesday afternoon. Trump exaggerated the legal effect of the decision and wrote that the sentence should be delayed. “Obviously, the Supreme Court’s Brilliantly Written and Historic Ruling inspired all Crooked Joe Biden’s hunts against me, including civil fraud at the WHITE HOUSE and DOJ in New York.”