The first debate in 2024 between President Joe Biden and former President Donald Trump will present many moments of opportunity and potential danger for both candidates. As the moderator of the final debate between Biden and Trump, I will be watching for some specific exchanges that could sway the small group of undecided voters who will be decisive in the election.
I will also examine how the rules of Thursday’s debates affect their speeches to voters and whether this setup presents new opportunities or threats for them. For example, the candidates’ decision to completely silence their microphones while the other is speaking is different from the first debate of 2020, when insults and interruptions dominated.
But in the second debate I moderated, the microphones were cut after each candidate had spoken for two minutes — but they remained on during the open debate segments. While I dreaded muting microphones in 2020, it ended up being a powerful tool to help keep the conversation on track.
And the second debate may be a preview things we can see on Thursday.
But above all, remember that each debate is ultimately a chance for voters to learn more about the candidates and help the undecided make up their minds. Whatever happens in Atlanta, one thing is certain: it will have a significant impact on how the race plays out between now and November.
1. Which Trump will appear?
As he prepares to moderate the final debate of 2020, one question looms: Will Trump deliver the same stellar performance he delivered in the first debate?
Trump’s allies urged him to be more restrained in the second debate, which he did.
Trump’s inner circle is tipping him to repeat that performance on Thursday, according to many of Trump’s allies. One of them said that included allowing Biden to speak at length, which Trump’s team said could lead to moments that would indicate to the audience that Biden might not be able to serve another term. Trump’s advisers also want him to attack Biden on policies such as the economy and border security.
whom NBC News againmoved This week, Biden is prepared to take on whatever version of Trump he comes up with. If this is a disciplined Trump, some Biden allies say, he should try to lose his temper by bringing up issues such as his 2020 election loss, the Jan. 6 riot in the US Congress and his criminal convictions.
Biden argued that Trump’s second term would be more chaotic and destructive than his first, and that Trump would seek revenge and revenge. Biden is expected to argue Thursday night that Trump is not for Americans, but for himself.
2. Can Biden reverse perceptions of his power?
The Biden campaign and other Democrats see Thursday’s debate as the first of several key moments before early voting that they hope will change the dynamics of a race that remains incredibly close, with Trump leading by narrow margins in several key battleground states.
Biden’s top aides know he needs a strong performance Thursday night to prove to skeptical voters he has what it takes to serve another four years. Only 28% of voters called Biden “tough.” recent CBS News/YouGov poll, compared to 66% who said the same with Trump. And in it National Fox News poll43% of voters said they believed Biden was better described as a “strong leader,” compared to 53% of Trump.
So what should Biden do?
“If President Biden can make it clear that he’s doing it for all the right reasons, he’s going to have a good night,” a top Democratic strategist told NBC News. “There’s going to be some back-and-forth politics, blacks and a lot of disagreements, but at the end of the day, the big question is who’s going to show up behind you.”
3. How does Trump respond when his recent conviction becomes a topic of discussion?
After Trump was indicted on 34 felonies, Biden quickly and for the first time took direct aim at him in his legal battles – calling him “”a convicted felon.” Biden’s aides say that he will claim that Trump is unfit for office.
Trump’s consistent and unjustified criminal convictions were orchestrated by Biden just to gain political and electoral advantage. On Thursday night, he will have the opportunity to do so in front of millions of Americans by standing next to Biden. So far, Trump’s beliefs have done little to change the overall dynamics of the race. Some polls since then have shown Trump losing ground, but the move has been within the polls’ margins of error.
A Trump adviser familiar with the debate preparation told NBC News: “Trump is not only prepared, but expects Biden to hit him on 34 felonies.”
The adviser added that Trump would be prepared to respond, but would not give specific details about what he would say.
4. How does Biden handle inflation questions?
One of the biggest perceived policy weaknesses for Biden is the country’s stubborn inflation rate. Although inflation fell to 3.3% in May – the lowest since 2021 – most people still say prices are too high. Biden tried to keep a balance when talking about the issue, acknowledging the strain inflation is putting on people, while also hinting that it’s getting better.
Still, Biden gets low marks for his handling of the economy, with only 39% of voters approving of his job on the economy and 63% saying their family’s income falls short of the cost of living, according to an April national NBC News poll.
In recent weeks, Trump has floated several economic proposals to try to preserve that advantage — from offering green cards to immigrants with college degrees to proposing that tips be exempt from income taxes.
Biden has argued that his second term will be based on policies aimed at lowering prices, including raising taxes on those earning more than $400,000 a year and calling for more investment in social service programs.
While both candidates will be under pressure to become better stewards of the economy, Biden, as the incumbent, will feel this top voter concern the most.
5. How does Trump handle abortion issues?
Abortion access may also be one of the biggest X-factors in the election. Polls show that most people in the United States, including important independent voters, support some access to abortion.
Roe v. Trump, who took it upon himself to appoint the three Supreme Court justices who allowed Wade to be overturned, also tried to walk a fine line. He recently warned Republican lawmakers that abortion could cost the GOP politically and suggested they take a measured approach when debating the issue.
Trump’s current situation therefore, abortion policy should be left to the states. Biden is trying to convince voters that Trump will not stick to this idea if he is re-elected. try to pass a federal ban. Biden’s position is that the abortion rights protected in Roe should be codified in legislation passed by Congress, though Democrats disagree on what that would entail.
Expect this to be one of the biggest flashpoints during the debate.