NOGALES, Arizona – When Arturo Garino was mayor of Nogales, he joined neighboring mayors to campaign for national Democratic candidates, including then-President Barack Obama.
Now out of state office and one with Arizona immigration hotspot, he told NBC News that he is certain he will not campaign for President Joe Biden. Although he voted for her in 2020, he said in an interview last month that he did not know how he would vote this November.
“I don’t think what this administration is doing right is giving all these people an opportunity to meet,” Garino told NBC News. “I’m a Democrat and I’m very angry.”
President Biden An executive order signed Tuesday sharply limits migrants’ ability to seek asylum at the border, shows how boring immigration is to his campaign, even among Latino voters who generally side with his party on the issue.
Voters once like Garino punished the leadership They are angry that the pandemic continues the ban on border crossings high number of migrants in recent years. At the same time, many accuse Biden of failing to deliver on promises of immigration reform for long-term undocumented immigrants, despite years of progress. blockades Legislation by Republicans in Congress.
In a presidential race with razor-thin margins, any erosion of Latino support in such a heavily Latino battleground could pay off.
Shrinking advantage?
As has historically been the case, immigration is not a major voting issue for Latinos in this election. But many Latino voters use immigration as a litmus test to judge those who are anti-immigration also anti-Latinino, said Carlos Odio, co-founder of Equis Research, a Democratic-leaning Latino polling and research firm.
“That has changed a bit in the last few years. “The Democrats no longer have the advantage,” he said. Odio said Democrats have broken campaign promises to provide pathways to legal status for immigrants, and that Republicans will not go as far as they would like with their immigration crackdown.
Recent polls have shown an increase in Latinos Agrees with the GOP calls for more border enforcement, as well as an increase in the percentage of Latinos who say Republicans and presumptive presidential nominee Donald Trump could do a better job at border enforcement.
According to a recent NBC News poll, US voters ranked immigration and the border as the most important issue facing the country, after inflation and the cost of living. Less than 30% He approved of Biden’s handling of immigration and the border. The poll found that 42% of Republicans, 4% of Democrats, and 15% of independents see immigration and the border as a top issue.
An April poll by Axios-Ipsos and Noticias Telemundo found that some hardline positions on immigration are gaining popularity among Latinos. For example, building a border wall or fence rose from 30% to 42% among Latinos from December 2021 to March 2024. But Latinos are still less likely to support a wall or call for deportations. Pew Research Center request.
Clarissa Martinez de Castro, vice president of the Latino Vote Initiative at UnidosUS, the nation’s largest Latino advocacy group, said in a recent interview that the Biden administration and campaign have not offered Latino swing voters a convincing counter-narrative to Republican talking points on immigration. .
“This is a political mistake. They leave the space and allow people with a different perspective to define them,” said Martinez de Castro, whose group recently Biden confirmed in Arizona.
Biden’s order is the latest from the administration striker about immigration. Biden attacked Trump for essentially killing a bipartisan bill that included money for border security, additional visas and green cards for some immigrants, and tougher asylum laws. After Republicans blocked that bill twice, Biden used his executive power to order the asylum controls.
More control, but no pressure
Along with other liberal pollsters, Martínez de Castro cautioned against exaggerating or drawing false conclusions from the extent of changes in Latino voters’ views on immigration.
It’s a mistake to think that just because Latino voters are unhappy with the situation at the border means they want a Trump-like crackdown, he said. His organization’s survey shows that there is still strong support among Latinos for providing asylum to new immigrants, Martinez said.
“All things being equal, immigration was an area that favored Democrats, and still Latino voters see more alignment with Democrats (on immigration) than they do with Republicans,” Martinez said. “But it used to be very high contrast, and this contrast is not as high as it used to be.”
This isn’t the first time immigration has sided with Democrats. Former President Barack Obama was tagged “Chief Deporter” during his first term due to the large number of deportations carried out by his administration. But then Republicans attacked him during his re-election campaign for failing to follow through on his promise to sign an immigration reform bill in his first 100 days in office.
In recent years, there have been Republicans blocked retries passing comprehensive immigration reform. For years, the model for such failed legislative proposals has involved building border security and giving undocumented immigrants who have lived in the United States for decades a chance to gain permanent legal status, along with other restrictive measures.
Republican lawmakers in Arizona voted to place a proposition on the November ballot giving local and state authorities the power to arrest and deport people they suspect are in the country illegally — an area of the law currently limited to the federal government.
Opponents dubbed the new proposals “SB1070 2.0,” a A reference to the “Show me your documents” law A law signed by Republican Gov. Jan Brewer in 2010 that allows police to check the immigration status of people they stop when they have “reasonable suspicion they may be in the country illegally.” The widespread backlash against SB1070 among Latinos is often attributed to Arizona’s transition from a reliable red state to today’s purple state.
Migration changes and voter response
At a recent campaign event in Nogales for Kari Lake (a Trump-aligned Senate candidate), Yvette Serino, chairwoman of Latinos for Lake, said she’s been able to convert some friends and family members to the MAGA cause. Serino herself comes from a prominent Democratic political family in Nogales, where her grandfather served in public office for decades.