Welcome to the online version of From the policy deskevening bulletin that brings you the latest reporting and analysis from the campaign trail, the White House and Capitol Hill from the NBC News Politics team.
In today’s edition, national political reporters Bridget Bowman and Henry J. Gomez examine how the Senate candidates in the primary races are reacting to Donald Trump’s guilty verdict. Plus, senior political editor Mark Murray explains what we can and can’t learn from the primary polls since Trump’s conviction.
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Hush money ruling tests Senate candidates’ approach to Trump
By Bridget Bowman and Henry J. Gomez
Donald Trump’s hush money conviction in New York is becoming one of the first major tests for candidates in key down-ballot races trying to compete against the polarizing former president.
Republican candidates in the Senate battlegrounds have since rallied around Trump A Manhattan jury found him guilty of all 34 counts last week Many falsified business records, criticizing the case as “election interference,” “fraud,” “forgery” and “political harassment.”
However, as Republicans rush to embrace Trump, many Democrats want to focus on their home states and other issues rather than cooking up a guilty verdict, given the uncertain political landscape and the knowledge that they will need the support of Trump voters. they are also in critical competitions.
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At least two Republican Senate candidates began running new ads on Monday to further capitalize on the ruling.
Montana Republican Tim Sheehy was released a new place His likely challenger, Democratic incumbent Jon Tester, said he “supports Joe Biden’s witch hunt every step of the way.” The ad will air on television, according to a source familiar with the strategy.
Republican Bernie Moreno in Ohio introduced digital advertising he criticizes Democratic Sen. Sherrod Brown for “refusing to condemn Biden’s politically motivated witch hunt.”
It’s no coincidence that Moreno and Sheehy are leaning toward the ruling to fire Trump supporters in Ohio and Montana. After the open seat in West Virginia, both states are among Republicans’ best chances to flip seats in the Senate this year — Trump carried Montana by 16 points and Ohio by 8 points in 2020. The GOP needs a net gain of two seats to take control. house (or one seat if Trump wins the White House, since the vice president casts tie-breaking votes in the Senate).
Tester and Brown gave similar, muted responses to last week’s verdict.
“I’m not a lawyer or a judge, but I’ve said from the beginning that no one is above the law,” Brown said. “Ultimately, it’s up to the legal system to decide and the American people to decide in November.”
“Senator Tester respects the judicial process and believes that everyone should be treated fairly before the courts and that voters will have the opportunity to make their voices heard at the ballot box in November,” the spokesperson said. This was reported to the Montana Free Press.
Read more about how Senate candidates are handling Trump’s ruling →
What the first polls show – and don’t show – after Trump’s conviction
By Mark Murray
News organizations and pollsters released several quick polls over the weekend to gauge the political landscape following Trump’s conviction.
Three conclusions that different national polls told us and didn’t tell us after the historic verdict.
The majority agrees with the verdict: A CBS News/YouGov poll 57% of adults said the jury in Trump’s trial got it right. This finding was supported by a Morning Consult questionnaireof which 54% of registered voters said they approved of the sentence, as well as one ABC News/Ipsos poll50% of adults said the sentence was correct.
Those results are in line with national polls before the sentencing, which have consistently shown slim majorities saying the charges against Trump are few and far between. they were seriousand he was held to the same standard like everyone else charged with these crimes.
Republicans firmly stand behind Trump: The title About 1 in 10 Republicans said they were less likely to vote for Trump after the decision, according to a Reuters/Ipsos poll released on Saturday. But fair warning: These voters are in the clear minority of their party.
Actually, in fact, in the same survey55% of Republican voters said the verdict did not make a difference in their vote, while 34% said it made them more likely to vote for Trump.
Moreover, one in 10 GOP voters who said they were less likely to vote for Trump was nearly the same. NPR/PBS NewsHour/Marist survey found before judgment. The same May 21-23 poll found that 10% of Republicans would be less likely to vote for Trump if impeached, 25% would be more likely, and 68% said it would make no difference.
Make no mistake: Even a smidgen of Republicans turning away from Trump could be decisive five months from now. But the bottom line — right now — is that 9 in 10 Republicans are behind him in a Reuters/Ipsos poll.
The general political environment has not changed much: This may be the biggest result yet from the first post-conviction surveys. Two of the questionnaires – Reuters/Ipsos and Morning Advice — announced the results of the race between President Joe Biden and Trump after the verdict. While the movement in each was in Biden’s direction, it was within margin of error and similar to other national polls we saw before the ruling.
Reuters/Ipsos poll of registered voters: Biden 41%, Trump 39% (up from Biden 40%, Trump 40%).
Morning Consult poll of registered voters: Biden 45%, Trump 44% (up from Trump 44%, Biden 42%).
In addition, the ABC News/Ipsos poll found favorability ratings for Trump and Biden unchanged from the previous survey in March.
A permanent 2- or 3-point swing to Biden in November could also be decisive. Still, national polls showing results of 41% vs. 39% or 44% vs. 42% don’t tell us who will win — and only suggest that the race is close (especially under Electoral College system). Plus, Trump has a guilty conviction It is impossible to be the last big twist in the 2024 presidential elections.
Read more from post-Trump opinion polls →
🗞️ The best stories of the day
- ⚖️ Another week, another test: Hunter Biden’s trial in Delaware began Monday with jury selection as the president’s son faces three gun-related charges. More →
- ☑️ He runs: Indicted New Jersey Sen. Bob Menendez, a Democrat, will run for re-election as an independent while on trial for bribery. More →
- 📝 Border Battle: On Tuesday, Joe Biden is expected to sign an executive action that would temporarily close the border if the numbers rise. More →
- 🛑 Not so fast: A senior Israeli official said Biden was describing Israel’s ceasefire proposal. not sure .” It came before the Israel Defense Forces confirmed the deaths of four more Israeli hostages taken by Hamas on Monday. More →
- ⚠️ Warning: The new head of the NSA told The Wall Street Journal that he is concerned that China is positioning itself for a future cyberattack on the infrastructure of America or its allies. More →
- ‼️ Dangerous warning: Puerto Rico Governor Pedro Pierluisi lost the primary to the island’s resident commissioner and non-voting member of Congress, Jennifer Gonzalez. More →
- 🏳️🌈 Barrier breakers: This Pride Month, NBC News takes a look at 30 LGBTQ political leaders who have broken historical barriers. More →
For now, here they are from The Politics Desk. If you have feedback – like it or not – email us politicsnewsletter@nbcuni.com
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